$BTC🤫TrumpFed?

In partnership with

63+ Cheat Sheets | Advertise | SuperAI x Crypto | Free One-Shot Guides

We asked Deadcember to stay away... and it seems the Fed actually listened. 😅

After closing NovemBear, the market tried to scare us again this morning. $BTC.X ( ▲ 5.41% ) wick-ed all the way down to ~$83,900, pulling ETH and stocks down with it. Nearly $1 Billion in leveraged longs got wiped out in 24 hours.

We are now back at $87K. While everyone was panic-selling, the Federal Reserve quietly pumped $13.5 Billion into the banking system via overnight repos. That is the 2nd largest injection since Covid. 🤯

Heads up: President Trump just announced he will be making a major statement at 2:00 PM ET today. This is his first public appearance since the recent chaos, and rumors are flying about defense or political shifts. Volatility isn't done yet. 👀

Here’s what we got for you today:

• 👀 Will Bitcoin sell off to $56k?

• ⭐ Trump-Fed: Why Powell Went Silent

• ⭐ Prediction Agents: AI Bets Real Money

• 🔥 Burning hot takes for the road

Will Bitcoin sell off to $56K? 📉

Nobody wants to hear this, but we have to look at the data.

BTC breaking below $100K wasn't just a dip; it was a structural shift. And now, several long-term on-chain metrics, including the Realized Price and Terminal Price Model, are pointing to a much deeper consolidation zone.

We mapped out the 3 potential scenarios for the next 12 months, from a quick rebound to a year-long flush. This report isn't about FUD; it's about preparation. We show you exactly how to position defensively so you don't get wiped out if we revisit $56k.

🤫 POWELL’S STRANGE SILENCE & TRUMP’S NEW “SHADOW FED”

If you were waiting for Jerome Powell to give us a hint about the economy yesterday, you got nothing.

In a speech at Stanford, the Fed Chair did something unusual: he completely ignored the economy. No rate talk. No inflation updates. Just a history lesson on George Shultz. Why the silence? Because the ground beneath him is shifting.

While Powell stays quiet, two massive stories are unfolding that could reshape the entire financial landscape for 2025.

1. The Succession Drama (Trump’s Pick)

The reason for Powell's silence might be political. President Trump just confirmed he has decided on the next Fed Chair.

While flying back on Air Force One, Trump teased reporters with a smirk: "I know who I am going to pick... We’ll be announcing it."

The prediction markets aren't waiting for the press release. They are aping in. According to Kalshi and Polymarket, Kevin Hassett is the runaway favorite, with odds sitting around 75%.

Why does this matter? Because the Trump administration, led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, wants a "Shadow Fed." No more regional presidents spreading FUD. No more random speeches crashing the market. Just a quiet Fed that stays out of the way.

If Hassett takes the chair, expect a dovish pivot: cheaper loans, easier mortgages, and a Fed that fades into the background.

2. The Hidden Stress Signal ($25B Repo Spike)

While everyone focuses on the political drama, the plumbing of the financial system just leaked.

The Fed quietly accepted $25 BILLION in overnight repo operations. That means banks are scrambling for cash. Healthy banks don't need emergency overnight liquidity. They only tap this window when they don't trust each other or when collateral is drying up.

This is happening exactly as Gold and Silver are breaking All-Time Highs. The smart money is fleeing paper promises for hard assets.

This is might be the calm before the pivot. We are in a weird limbo…

• On the surface: Powell is silent, and the market is waiting for the Dec 10 rate decision (87% chance of a cut).

• Under the hood: Banks are stressed, and a new "Trump Fed" is about to take over with a mandate to print.

Watch the Dec 10 FOMC meeting closely. If the Fed cuts rates while repo usage spikes, it’s a sign they are trying to patch a hole in the system before the new leadership arrives. In this environment, hard assets (Gold, BTC) are your insurance policy.

🗓️ BONUS: Don’t Miss Out Your December Crypto Calendar

If you thought the year was winding down, think again. December is absolutely loaded with volatility catalysts that will move the market. Save this schedule. You're going to need it. 👇

Key dates to watch:

• The Macro: All eyes on Dec 10 (Rates) and Dec 18 (CPI).

• The Unlocks: Millions in supply hitting the market for $SUI.X ( ▲ 21.34% ) , $APT, $STRK ( ▲ 2.36% ) , and $ARB.X ( ▲ 10.49% ) .

• The Tech: Mainnet upgrades for $ETH.X ( ▲ 7.5% ) and $VET.X ( ▲ 7.3% ) are dropping this week.

Shoppers are adding to cart for the holidays

Peak streaming time continues after Black Friday on Roku, with the weekend after Thanksgiving and the weeks leading up to Christmas seeing record hours of viewing. Roku Ads Manager makes it simple to launch last-minute campaigns targeting viewers who are ready to shop during the holidays. Use first-party audience insights, segment by demographics, and advertise next to the premium ad-supported content your customers are streaming this holiday season.

Read the guide to get your CTV campaign live in time for the holiday rush.

Learn more.

🔮 PREDICTION AGENTS. WHEN AI STARTS BETTING WITH REAL MONEY

We’ve talked about Prediction Markets (like Polymarket) exploding this year. But something fundamental is shifting under the surface. It’s no longer just humans betting on election results or interest rates.

40% of the volume on top prediction platforms now comes from AI Agents.

We are witnessing the birth of a new species: The Prediction Agent. This isn't just a bot executing trades; it's an autonomous financial entity that reads news, calculates probability, manages risk, and bets — all without human permission.

1. The New Whales Are Algorithms

In 2025, the prediction market sector hit $27.9 Billion in volume. But the scary (and exciting) part is who is trading. Before, humans read the news and placed a bet. Now, AI Agents like PolyTrader or GraphAI are scraping X (Twitter), on-chain data, and sentiment analysis in real-time.

Thanks to new protocols like x402 (from Coinbase), these agents can now pay for their own API calls and execute trades directly from their own wallets using USDC. They are financially autonomous.

2. From "Human Intuition" to "Machine Probability"

This changes the very nature of price discovery. Instead of price reflecting "what the crowd thinks," it now reflects "what the algorithm calculates."

• Liquidity Optimization: Agents act as smart market makers, automatically filling gaps in low-volume markets to capture spreads.

• Information Arbitrage: If a rumor breaks on X about a token launch, an agent can bet on it milliseconds before a human even refreshes their feed.

This is undeniably bullish for volume and efficiency. Projects like Olas Predict (where 300+ agents compete daily) are proving that AI can maintain ~79% accuracy.

However, there is a risk. If the market becomes dominated by AI vs. AI battles, do the odds still reflect reality, or just the feedback loop of similar models fighting each other? We might see flash crashes in probability where one bad data point triggers a cascade of agent bets.

If you are trading prediction markets in 2026, realize you aren't betting against other degens anymore. You're betting against a machine that reads the news faster than you 🤯!

🎁 HEY! If you want to explore these insights deeper and get real-time updates on the latest market moves, you need to upgrade to our premium package. Still hesitant? You don't need to commit long-term. Try it out for just one month first.

Luckily for you, thanks to an extended Cyber Monday event, our upgrade deal is still live and it's an absolute steal: Only $3.99.

New members are flooding in to take advantage of this price, why are you still waiting?

Why Wait Years for Returns? Private Credit Can Pay Monthly.

High yield used to mean locking up your money for years. With Percent, accredited investors can access private credit deals that pay monthly - with average durations under 10 months and potential yields up to 20%.

In volatile markets, control matters. Percent empowers accredited investors to take the reins, allowing you to browse curated offerings and choose deals that match your yield goals, time horizon, and risk appetite. Take charge of your portfolio’s risk-return profile.

The Crypto Fire’s readers who sign up can get up to a $500 bonus on their first investment.

🔥 BURNING HOT TAKES FOR THE ROAD

Trading volumes across both CEXs and DEXs just plummeted to ~$1.6 trillion, the lowest since June, as traders hit the brakes in November. Read more

Vanguard is finally capitulating (sort of). Clients can now trade crypto funds like BlackRock's $IBIT ( ▲ 6.54% ) , effectively opening the door to $11T in capital. Read more

Japan is proposing a massive crypto tax cut to a uniform 20% rate, a game-changer that could flood the market with yen liquidity. Read more

Kalshi just tokenized thousands of prediction contracts on Solana, officially bringing its regulated markets on-chain to battle Polymarket. Read more

🤡 SPICY MEME

💌 SHOUTOUT FROM OUR FIRESTARTER

We read your emails, comments, and poll replies daily

Hit reply and say Hello, we'd love to hear from you!

And if you’ve got a friend deep in crypto (or just getting started), feel free to forward this to them. They can sign up here. Cheers!

⚠ This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Traders should conduct thorough research, understand the risks, and carefully evaluate their decisions before investing in cryptocurrency.