🧟 L1s are Walking Deadchains!?

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For the first time ever, CFTC - often called “the SEC of derivatives” - officially approves $BTC.X ( ▼ 1.06% ) spot trading on US-regulated exchanges:

• The US is serious about becoming the “Capital of Crypto”

• It opens the door for institutional capital to return to compliant, onshore platforms

This is CFTC’s first time ever opening the gates for $BTC spot. Guys, bitcoin now sits at the same table as oil and precious metals 😁

Here’s what we got for you today:

• 👀 The end of free money era in crypto

• ⭐ CZ steps into the prediction market

• ⭐ Is the golden age of Layer 1 over?

• 🔥 Burning hot takes for the road

You remember Eugene Le, our main trader? Lately he’s been so deep into the market and the charts.

He’s so dedicated to analyzing everything that I think he might’ve just “won over something” and gotten extra hyped from it 😂

Anw, he took some time to put together what I think are really useful and easy-to-understand guides. Here they are:

• The End of AI and Free Money Era in Crypto

• Crypto is Green Again - WHY???

🎯 CZ GOT THE SPOTLIGHT OF THE PREDICTION MARKET

On Dec 4, CZ - founder of Binance - made a big move. He publicly announced a new on-chain prediction market built on BNB Chain, backed by YZiLabs (formerly Binance Labs).

This isn’t just a hobby project, YZiLabs manages $10B+ in assets and has backed over 300 projects.

And that’s not all. Just a day earlier, Trust Wallet (which CZ owns too) rolled out prediction trading for its 220M users, with integration partners like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Myriad.

You can now place bets on elections, sports, market trends and more right inside the app. This comes right after October’s $7.4B prediction market volume surge, which clearly caught a lot of attention.

It’s clearly part of a bigger game plan to make BNB Chain the go-to home for decentralized prediction markets.

BNB Chain has been cooking this up since October with:

• Integrated with Polymarket

• Launched Opinion Labs mainnet (Oct 23)

• Raised millions from ASTER, World Liberty Financial, and others

CZ’s new prediction platform lets your funds earn yield while waiting for results (yes, like DeFi meets betting).

He did throw in a disclaimer that the founder is a former Binance staffer, and this isn’t an “official endorsement”...

But then again, the homepage literally shows CZ’s face next to Trump and Faker, sooo... we get the hint 😅

📲 Trust Wallet is also evolving fast.

It’s no longer just a storage app. The new prediction feature positions Trust Wallet as a full-stack DeFi portal, and a serious rival to MetaMask:

• Users can now bet using $BNB.X ( ▼ 1.07% ) or stablecoins like $USDC.X ( ▼ 0.01% )  

• No need for bridges or cross-chain swaps

• Integration with Myriad and BNB Chain allows low-fee, high-speed bets

So what does this all mean?

Prediction markets like Polymarket are blowing up (hit $2B in volume), Kalshi raised at a $5B valuation, and Polymarket’s worth is sitting around $12–15B.

There were even markets predicting BNB to hit $1,500 by the end of 2025. And Opinion Labs, another YZiLabs-backed prediction protocol, launched its mainnet on Oct 23.

CZ clearly wants to be in.

If you look deeper, prediction markets aren’t just about betting. They’re decentralized oracles, tools for price discovery, sentiment analysis, and crowd intelligence.

What should you do? Keep a close eye on the BNB token. If these prediction markets capture even a fraction of Polymarket's volume, the burn rate and utility for BNB will skyrocket.

Also, start looking at these platforms not just as gambling venues, but as hedging tools.

If you hold a lot of crypto, you can use these markets to hedge against bad regulatory news or macro events. The "Casino" is opening, but the smart money plays the house.

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😵 IS THE GOLDEN AGE OF L1s OVER?

That’s the big question Jason Choi (co-founder of Tangent VC) raised recently, and honestly, it’s something many of us have been wondering too.

Right now, there are 2 sides to the L1 debate:

• Some say Layer 1s are massively overvalued compared to the real utility they currently offer

• Others argue they're still undervalued if you zoom out and think long term

Both takes make sense. But if you look at how this cycle has played out so far... the “overhyped” argument feels a little more convincing right now.

According to Messari’s “Crypto Theses 2026” report:

• L1s will keep losing market share to BTC

• The monetary premium attached to most L1s will shrink

• Only ecosystems that show true user and app growth will hold their ground

Out of the current $3.26T total crypto market cap, BTC alone holds $1.8T ~ 55% of the entire space. About $830B for other L1s like $ETH.X ( ▲ 1.13% ) , $SOL.X ( ▼ 3.08% ) , $XRP.X ( ▼ 4.78% ) BNB, SUI, AVAX, etc.

We think the core issue is that crypto’s main use case today is still… casino. Most onchain activity today is still dominated by:

• Leverage trading

• Memecoins

• Perpetuals

• And other high-risk, fast-money plays

That’s not necessarily a bad thing. But it’s a far cry from the big Web3 vision we all got excited about, things like gaming, real consumer apps, decentralized commerce, etc.

Another worrying signal is that top talent is leaving.

Back in the 2020–2022 cycle, we saw a wave of brilliant engineers quit big tech to build in crypto because they believed it could change the world.

But now, if crypto keeps shrinking into just being a financial casino:

• Those engineers are heading to AI or other emerging spaces

• The ecosystem loses its best product builders

• Innovation slows down, and practical apps don’t show up

Public trust in Web3 is also fading.

After disasters like Luna and FTX, the average person doesn’t remember the innovation.
They remember one thing: “Bitcoin is fine. The rest is scammy.”

Yes, BTC is gaining legitimacy (you name it, ETFs).

But many of the bold Web3 dreams we had like DePIN, DeSci, or open Web3 apps, just haven’t scaled like we hoped over the last 5 years.

So can L1s still 20x or 100x like VCs hoped?

If crypto evolves into a hybrid of stablecoin rails + gambling platform, then sure, L1s will still have a role to play.

Unless L1s show real ecosystem growth (users, apps, fees), they’ll lose both valuation and narrative strength. The old story of “we could become money someday” just doesn’t hit the same anymore.

But for them to pull off another massive growth curve like in previous cycles? That’s going to be tough. Really tough.

Hopefully, we’ll all be glad we didn’t give up too soon.

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🔥 BURNING HOT TAKES FOR THE ROAD

CZ just ratio’d Peter Schiff after he hyped silver at $58: “Silver ‘started’ 2,600 years ago.” He’s been spending a lot of time checking VARs lately. Read more

Rate cut probabilities are surging ahead of the Dec 11 meeting. FedWatch data shows an 87.1% chance. See the rate

While Polymarket bettors are 94% confident in a 0.25% cut. Now it’s just a matter of time before Papa Powell makes it official 🤭 Read more

Base officially launched a direct bridge to Solana, two of the largest blockchain ecosystems, using Chainlink’s tech. Read more

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⚠ This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Traders should conduct thorough research, understand the risks, and carefully evaluate their decisions before investing in cryptocurrency.