The Bitcoin Way - Altcoin Season Play

After my recent analysis on $ETH.X ( ▲ 6.71% ) received such strong support, I decided to follow up with a deep dive into $BTC.X ( ▲ 2.88% ) as this Altcoin season nears its end. We need to analyze carefully and take timely action — because time is running out, right?

Let’s get started!

📊 Fundamental Analysis: Bitcoin’s Digital Gold Flywheel

If you zoom out from the ETF noise, Bitcoin’s fundamentals right now are being driven more by macro than by crypto-native dynamics.

Here’s what matters most:

Interest Rates:

The U.S. Federal Reserve continues to play a central role in shaping Bitcoin’s market outlook. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, expectations for the December 10, 2025 FOMC meeting now overwhelmingly point to a rate cut toward the 3.50%–3.75% range, with the probability climbing above 80%. This marks a significant shift from mid-August, when markets were more evenly split between maintaining current levels (4.00%–4.25%) and modest cuts.

For Bitcoin, this shift in expectations is critical. Historically, lower interest rates ease liquidity conditions, making it cheaper to borrow and encouraging capital to flow into risk assets like cryptocurrencies. That anticipation has already helped Bitcoin rebound from a period of sideways consolidation.

Still, the backdrop is far from one-sided. A strong U.S. dollar and lingering inflation concerns continue to weigh on sentiment. This was reflected in September 2025 ETF outflows from both Bitcoin and Ethereum, showing that institutional investors remain cautious despite the rate-cut narrative.

Regulation

Under President Donald Trump's administration, the regulatory landscape for Bitcoin has seen markedly positive developments. Since his reelection and inauguration in early 2025, Trump's government has taken steps to embrace cryptocurrency more strategically. An executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve and the appointment of crypto-friendly officials to pivotal regulatory bodies like the SEC reflect a federal stance that aims to foster digital asset growth with clearer legal frameworks.

Legislative advances such as the Clarity Act, which delineates the legal categorization of cryptocurrencies, have further reduced regulatory uncertainties that previously hampered institutional participation. This regulatory clarity bolsters confidence among investors and institutions, signaling a potentially transformative era for cryptocurrency integration in the broader financial system.

BTC and Gold

Since the start of 2025, Gold (orange line) has surged to new all-time highs, while Bitcoin (white line), despite recovering strongly from 2024, is still consolidating below its previous peak.

Historically, Gold often moves first, acting as a leading indicator, with Bitcoin following shortly after. We saw this pattern clearly in 2020–2021, when Gold rallied first and Bitcoin exploded higher soon after.

Now, with Gold already at record highs, the probability is high that Bitcoin will soon follow. This is especially true as the Fed is preparing rate cuts, global liquidity shows signs of expansion, and investors are increasingly rotating into hard assets to hedge against inflation.

All of this points to Bitcoin being on the verge of another major breakout after its sideways phase. If history repeats, Gold’s rally could be the early signal for Bitcoin’s next leg higher.

BTC and S&P 500

In 2025, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has stayed broadly positive, though it is weaker compared to the previous years. The S&P has continued to push into new all-time highs, reflecting optimism around Fed policy shifts and resilient corporate earnings. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has paused in a consolidation range between $110k–$120k after its strong rally in late 2024.

This slight divergence shows that while equities are still climbing steadily, Bitcoin has been catching its breath. Historically, such pauses in BTC often happen before liquidity conditions ease further and risk appetite expands. If the S&P remains strong, it sets the stage for Bitcoin to re-align and push higher once it regains momentum.

Bitcoin’s 2025 outlook is shaped by Fed policy, global liquidity, and risk sentiment. With rate cuts expected, liquidity should expand, supporting risk assets. The dollar’s strength and sticky inflation remain headwinds, but rising gold prices, record-high equities, and steady institutional ETF flows all signal strong demand for hard assets.

📉 Technical Analysis

Let’s talk charts. Bitcoin is sitting at a key inflection zone, and you can almost feel the market waiting for the next decisive move.

Trend structure 

Bitcoin is currently trading around $111,877; sitting below the MA 50 (blue line) but still comfortably above the MA 200 (orange line) at $104,606. This setup signals short-term weakness but a strong medium- to long-term structure. The failure to reclaim the 50-day MA shows that bulls are losing momentum in the near term, with resistance clustered around $113k–$115k.

However, the 200-day MA continues to act as a solid support floor, keeping the broader bull market intact. As long as Bitcoin holds above the 200-day MA, the long-term uptrend remains valid. A clean breakout back over the 50-day MA could restore bullish momentum and open the door for another push toward $118k–$124k.

Fibonacci
Bitcoin is trading right on the 0.618 Fib retracement at $111,346; a key golden ratio level. If bulls defend this zone, price could rebound toward $115k–$118k, with a breakout unlocking another push to the $123k high.

But if BTC slips below the 0.618, the next crucial support is the 0.786 Fib at $108,053. Losing that would flip structure bearish and expose downside targets at $104k–$92k. The $111k–$108k band is now the real battleground between bulls and bears.

Bitcoin is showing resilience around the 0.786 Fib zone, but instead of repeatedly retesting that level, price has formed higher lows, a classic bullish structure. Currently, BTC is holding above the 0.618 retracement, which signals that momentum is shifting back toward the upside after the sharp correction from the $123k peak.

As long as price does not break below the 0.786 support, the broader uptrend remains intact and the setup favors a continuation higher. This pattern suggests that the recent dip was a healthy correction, and investors can still expect further upside as the market gears up for another leg of the bull trend.

With Bitcoin defending key Fibonacci levels and building a structure of higher lows, the market is signaling that the uptrend is not broken yet. But while BTC consolidates and traders wait for confirmation of the next breakout, capital often looks for quicker returns elsewhere.

That’s exactly how Altcoin season tends to ignite, when Bitcoin holds steady but isn’t exploding, liquidity rotates into altcoins, fueling sharp rallies across L1s, DeFi... In other words, Bitcoin’s stability around these supports could be the quiet green light that keeps Altcoin season alive in the weeks ahead.

🧠 Sentiment Analysis – Fear vs. Smart Money

Sentiment is one of the most underrated drivers in this market.

Most current recommendations still lean toward selling Bitcoin, with little optimism on the surface. But as I explained earlier, the broader trend for BTC remains upward, and what we’re really waiting for is the next breakout. In the meantime, capital has been flowing into altcoins as traders chase short-term gains.

This is reflected in the Altcoin Index, which has stayed elevated in recent weeks, though you can already see it slowly drifting back toward the middle - a sign that momentum may be shifting.

The Fear & Greed Index also shows a cautious market mood, sitting more on the side of fear. Interestingly, if you look back, many of Bitcoin’s strongest uptrends began during periods of mild fear, with price moving sideways before breaking higher. On the other hand, market tops and corrections tend to emerge when sentiment flips to Greed or Extreme Greed, often while price is still climbing.

Of course, this is just my personal take, but I believe these signals point to the market preparing for the final major uptrend of this cycle.

🎯 Entry Points & Target Prices

Medium-term BTC Prediction (Q4 2025): $150,000-$180,000

Long-term BTC Prediction (More than 1 year): $180,000–$200,000 in line with bullish institutional forecasts.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Bitcoin isn’t broken. It’s consolidating while the spotlight shines on Altcoin season. If you manage entries well, the chop around $108k–$112k could be one of the last “calm before the storm” phases before BTC makes its next directional leg.

The playbook I’d suggest:

• Keep a core BTC position as your anchor.

• Use alt exposure tactically, rotating in and out rather than holding bags.

• If Bitcoin breaks $118k, expect alts to take a breather while BTC dominance reclaims ground, and the final biggest uptrend has started

Risk is clear, targets are clear. Now it’s about execution and patience.