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The Fed just delivered a 25 bps rate hike in a unanimous 12-0 vote, marking its first hike since 2023. Chair Kevin Warsh is clearly prioritizing sticky inflation (CPI/PPI > 3%) over market liquidity, signaling one more hike this year. 🦅

At his first FOMC meeting, he paused rates, and $BTC ( ▲ 1.31% ) pumped from $63K to $82K. Today, despite a hawkish hike, Bitcoin is chilling comfortably around $76K. Long-term effects are TBD, but the "Fed meeting = instant dump" curse seems dead.

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What if the biggest AI IPO of 2026 ends up being more about who can actually make money?

OpenAI is chasing a $1 trillion valuation, but the cost of keeping ChatGPT running is enormous. Meanwhile, Anthropic is quietly taking enterprise market share and appears to have a much cleaner path toward profitability.

In this deep dive, we break down:

The AI IPO race could become one of the biggest market stories of 2026. 👇

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 bps to 3.75% - 4.00%, its first hike since 2023. Hours later, President Trump (completely furious) publicly demanded rates be cut to 1% or lower, arguing U.S. borrowing costs should be far cheaper.

1/ The Fed is still worried about inflation

The FOMC voted 12–0 for the hike, saying inflation remains elevated while economic activity is still expanding at a solid pace.

And this may not be the last hike. 16 of 18 officials currently see rates ending 2026 above today’s midpoint, meaning another hike remains firmly on the table.

→ Higher rates keep borrowing expensive, support bond yields and make cash more attractive versus assets like stocks and crypto.

2/ Trump’s ultimatum: cut rates to 1% immediately

Trump responded by calling for rates to fall to 1% or even lower, saying the U.S. deserves much cheaper borrowing costs.

He has also criticized the Fed’s tightening stance before and linked high rates to broader trade and economic issues.

Warsh, meanwhile, defended the hike as necessary to bring inflation back toward the Fed’s 2% target and avoided promising when the next move would come.

3/ BTC got the classic whipsaw

$BTC ( ▲ 1.31% ) initially jumped after the decision before giving back part of the move, while gold showed a similar spike-and-fade reaction.

Stocks also struggled after the hike, with the S&P 500 closing down 0.4% and the Dow falling 1.2%.

=> Traders are still trying to figure out whether this was simply the hike everyone expected or the start of another tightening cycle:

So right now, bros, the market is stuck between Trump asking for cheap money and the Fed still fighting inflation.

AI spend is now a major P&L line item—but most teams can't show what it's producing.

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The CLARITY Act failed to clear its 60-vote Senate hurdle, but Aave founder Stani Kulechov doesn’t think DeFi should sit around waiting for Washington.

His alternative? Take the “Uber path.”

Basically, build something millions of people actually use first, then make regulation impossible for lawmakers to keep postponing.

1/ What does the “Uber path” mean?

Kulechov says DeFi should keep expanding adoption even if Congress cannot agree on a federal framework.

The idea is similar to Uber’s early growth: adoption moved faster than regulation, forcing governments to eventually figure out the rules.

He still believes CLARITY could return this year, but the window is getting tight. JPMorgan similarly says the bill is “not fully dead,” though its chances of passing this year have narrowed considerably.

And regulation isn’t stopping entirely. The SEC and CFTC have already signaled they plan to move ahead with crypto rules using their existing authority.

2/ Aave is going after much bigger money

Aave’s next bet goes beyond crypto-native collateral.

The protocol is pushing deeper into tokenized stocks, securities and other RWAs, including a new Avalanche-based hub aimed at institutional lending.

Institutions could deposit eligible tokenized assets as collateral and borrow stablecoins against them.

Kulechov’s point is simple: institutions “come with size.” If those assets move onchain, borrowing demand could become much larger than today’s DeFi market.

3/ The bottleneck is no longer the tech

Kulechov argues tokenization itself largely works now. The harder problem is getting useful products into people’s hands.

Aave is also preparing a simpler consumer app that hides wallets, chains and stablecoin complexity, allowing users to move between bank accounts and Aave more easily

🧠 My take

Aave’s strategy is basically: make onchain finance useful enough that regulation has to catch up.

And if tokenized assets really bring institutional-size collateral into DeFi, the next growth phase may look a lot less like degens borrowing against tokens and a lot more like traditional finance quietly moving onchain.

CLARITY isn’t dead yet. Sen. Gillibrand says Democrats still want the bill passed. Read more

BitMEX is closing, but the drama isn’t. Celsius’ estate is suing for up to $500M over 2020 liquidations. Read more

Circle launched Arc, expanding beyond its $74B $USDC ( ▼ 0.0% ) stablecoin business with a new blockchain built for onchain finance. Read more

Hackers behind the Revolut data leak are demanding $3M in ~6,000 $XMR ( ▼ 0.11% ) within 24 hours or threatening to sell customer data. Read more

A U.S. House committee passed the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill, which would lock government-held $BTC ( ▲ 1.31% ) for at least 20 years. Read more

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⚠ This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Traders should conduct thorough research, understand the risks, and carefully evaluate their decisions before investing in cryptocurrency.