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Over the weekend, BTC dropped 2.2% in 24 hours, falling to $79,700 before recovering slightly. $ETH ( ▼ 0.32% ), $XRP ( ▲ 0.3% ), and SOL also fell 3-4%. 💸 More than $400 million in LONG positions were liquidated in just 4 hours.
RIP to the long traders. 🤕 The sell-off came after The WSJ reported that the US was urgently pulling personnel from embassies and military bases across the Middle East.
Even on weekends, the crypto market won't give us a break.
Here’s what we got for you today:
👀 Coinbase stock trading explained
⭐ Bitcoin crash: Is $77K next?
⭐ Fed week: BTC’s biggest test
🔥 Burning hot takes for the road
We kept meeting operators who spent half a day lining up sends and still couldn’t explain the trail. That’s why VaultNow exists: batch payments, clearer books, control that stays with you.
Coinbase wants to replace your bank, stock broker, and crypto wallet with one app. Its ambitious plan includes real stock ownership through crypto, AI-powered trading, and loans backed by digital assets.
If it works, it could change how millions of people manage their money. But there’s a major catch that most headlines are missing. Here’s what Coinbase is really building, what could go wrong, and why it matters even if you don’t trade. 👇
📉 BTC BELOW $80,000: IS BENJAMIN COWEN'S Q4 ROADMAP HAPPENING?
$BTC ( ▼ 0.25% ) dropped below $80,000 on Monday. Popular analyst Benjamin Cowen confirmed that 2 out of 9 steps in his pessimistic roadmap for late 2026 are now complete.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran are adding more pressure, triggering heavy liquidations across the crypto market.
1/ Benjamin Cowen's Q4 Roadmap
Benjamin Cowen laid out a 9-step bearish pathway. So far, the first two steps have already taken place:
Step 1: Bitcoin closed the weekly candle below the critical $83,000 level.
Step 2: A fake breakout occurred on October 25, where the price pumped sharply before quickly reversing back down.
Cowen stated that this bearish pathway will be invalid if Bitcoin reclaims $83,000 and stays above it. Until then, he remains cautious. The next phases of Cowen's pathway rely on upcoming economic events:
Step 3 (Fed Decision - Oct 28): The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to hold interest rates steady at 2:00 PM Eastern Time.
Step 4 (PCE Inflation Data - Oct 29): The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release September's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is expected to stay high.
Step 5 (Rising Oil Prices): Brent crude oil closed Friday at $116.72. If Iran tensions grow into a full war, oil could rise toward $120.
Step 6 (10-Year Treasury Yields): Yields hit 5.10% on October 15 and could climb back toward 5.3%.
Step 7 to 9 (Market Decline & Late-Year Easing): Cowen expects US stock market drops, a deeper Bitcoin fall in Q4 (typical for mid-term election years), and a small drop in long-term bond yields by year-end.
2/ US-Iran Tensions & The Geopolitical Factor
President Donald Trump noted that the US could strike Iran or reach a deal. Historically, military news causes sharp 2% to 5% drops for Bitcoin, while delays in conflict have brought little recovery.
On October 22, attack reports pushed BTC down from $84,898 to $80,939, causing $635.49M in net ETF outflows.
Because crypto trades 24/7, Bitcoin acts as the first asset to react during weekend geopolitical events before stock markets open.
Bitcoin's correlation with gold reached an 8-year high in September, while its correlation with the US Dollar is strongly negative. If investors rush to safety in USD, both Bitcoin and gold could feel pressure.
3/ Massive Liquidations & Institutional Price Floor
The price drop hit leveraged traders and institutional holders hard.
CoinGlass data shows over $543M in total liquidations over 24 hours, with $461M+ coming from long positions. Another report noted $191M in long liquidations as BTC broke below $80k.
Glassnode data shows the average cost basis for ETF buyers and treasury holding companies sits between $80,000 and $81,500.
A daily close below $80,000 puts most institutional buyers in a loss, opening up the risk to test the Realized Price near $77,600.
🧠 Note: If BTC reclaims $83,000, Cowen's bearish roadmap falls apart. But if macro pressures like high inflation, rising oil prices, and war risks keep pushing down, BTC could test the $77,600 support level next!
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🚨 FED WEEK: STOCKS, BITCOIN, AND DXY IN THREE-WAY CLASH
From Wednesday to Friday, markets face a trifecta of volatility drivers: a Federal Reserve rate decision, key inflation data, and a massive $11B Bitcoin options expiration.
1/ Why the Fed's Pause Strategy Still Matters for December?
A month ago, traders expected a strong chance of a rate hike this week. Today, that probability has dropped below 1 in 10, but almost no one on Wall Street believes the Fed is completely finished hiking.
The Fed's key benchmark rate sits in the 3.75% to 4.00% range, directly driving up costs for home mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards.
Why rates drive capital flow? High interest rates make safe savings accounts offer better guaranteed returns, leaving fewer retail investors willing to risk capital on tech stocks or crypto.
CME FedWatch shows a 90.6% chance the Fed keeps rates unchanged on Wednesday (up from a 64.2% chance of a hike just a month ago).
Markets see a 68% chance of a December hike, and 100 out of 100 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Fed to raise rates in December.
Yardeni Research notes that the Fed is pausing this Wednesday due to political timing, as the US mid-term elections take place on November 3. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at 2:30 PM ET on Wednesday.
2/ Will Thursday's Inflation Data Push Markets Up or Down?
On Thursday morning, the Fed gets its favorite gauge of consumer spending inflation: the Core PCE Price Index.
Analysts project annual PCE inflation to hit 3.7%, almost double the Fed's 2.0% target and up from 3.4% in August.
US Q3 GDP growth is estimated at 3.2%, accelerating from 2.2% in the previous quarter.
The 10-year US Treasury yield closed near 5% on Friday (after hitting a high of 5.33% on October 14), signaling tight lending conditions ahead.
A higher-than-expected PCE reading will lock in a December rate hike, while a cooler reading offers relief. Historically, rate-hike fears caused Bitcoin to drop from ~$82,000 to near $60,000 in May/June.
3/ Are Europe and Japan Adding Fuel?
US policy isn't acting in a vacuum; major central banks in Europe and Japan are making decisions this same week.
European Central Bank (ECB): Meets Thursday. 70 out of 73 surveyed experts expect rates to hold steady at 2.50%, with most anticipating a hike coming in December.
Bank of Japan (BOJ): Meets Friday. Interest rates in Japan sit at 1.25%, their highest level since 1995.
Global investors have long borrowed cheap Japanese Yen to fund riskier assets, including crypto. Further BOJ rate hikes risk unwinding these massive carry-trade positions.
🔥 BURNING HOT TAKES FOR THE ROAD
6 more major corporations have opposed the OKX-ICE stock tokenization plan → 22/62 companies citing concerns. Read more
CoinDCX initially denied reports of an exploit, but later admitted losing nearly $16M linked to compromised 2025 hot wallets. Read more
After hitting record high levels earlier in 2026, BTC and gold unexpectedly became the year's worst-performing assets. Read more
Right after partnering with pump(.)fun, trader Kimchi’s hyped token rocketed to $15M before crashing a brutal 98%. Read more
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⚠ This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Traders should conduct thorough research, understand the risks, and carefully evaluate their decisions before investing in cryptocurrency.
