In partnership with
⚖️ Interest rate expectations are back to a 50/50 split, compared with roughly 35/65 yesterday. Tonight, the first major economic report of the month, Nonfarm Payrolls, will be released! Then, markets reacted immediately:
Bitcoin jumped around $6,000
Gold climbed back toward $4,500
U.S. stocks also rallied strongly
Here’s what we got for you today:
👀 Master Mech Arena on MegaETH
⭐ Bitcoin trades like gold again
⭐ Fed rate hike odds flip to 50/50
🔥 Burning hot takes for the road
Want to get the most out of ChatGPT?
ChatGPT is a superpower if you know how to use it correctly.
Discover how HubSpot's guide to AI can elevate both your productivity and creativity to get more things done.
Learn to automate tasks, enhance decision-making, and foster innovation with the power of AI.
The GameFi market is heating up again as MegaETH, a potential Layer 2 of the $ETH ecosystem, has successfully launched its gaming ecosystem.
Currently, based on my experience, we should focus on joining the MegaETH Mainnet and experiencing their games as early as possible to receive the massive Airdrop! Let's dive into the first project 👇
🚀 BITCOIN IS TRADING LIKE GOLD AGAIN AS FIAT RISKS COME BACK
If you’ve been watching the charts, you’ve probably noticed something wild happening: Bitcoin is breaking away from the stock market and pairing up with Gold.
As currency risks, government debt, and bond yields flare up again, investors are treating Bitcoin like "digital gold on steroids."
1/ Ditching Stocks for Gold
For years, BTC mostly moved hand-in-hand with the S&P 500. When stocks dumped, BTC dumped. When stocks pumped, BTC pumped. But that relationship just completely broke down:
Bitwise data shows the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and Gold hit its highest level since 2020 (when central banks printed trillions during COVID-19).
Glassnode data reveals the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 fell near 0 during August.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that over the past 6 months, BTC actually had a lower link to US stocks than gold, small-cap stocks, emerging markets, and Treasury bonds.
→ $BTC ( ▲ 4.44% ) ripped +22% in a single week (its best weekly run since March 2024), while Gold gained +5% and US stocks fell. As of September 4, 2026, Bitcoin reclaimed $81,000 (peaking near $82,000 with a +5.6% 24-hour gain).
2/ Why is This Shift Happening Right Now?
It comes down to basic government finance and currency risk:
Yields on 10-year and 30-year US Treasury bonds spiked hard in August.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had to step up long-term bond purchases just to support and stabilize the market.
As the fiscal deficit grows and the US Dollar Index drops, investors are fleeing to scarce assets to shield themselves from paper money losing buying power.
André Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise Europe, explained that when fiat risks rise, investors stop seeing Bitcoin as just another risk asset and start treating it like an "amplified version of gold."
Bitcoin correlation to US stocks
To be honest, Bitcoin isn't Gold just yet.
The global Gold market is worth roughly $30 trillion, backed by central banks and governments holding massive official reserves. Gold also doesn't suffer 50% to 80% bear market drops like Bitcoin historically has.
But if investors start treating Bitcoin as a standard hedge against inflation and currency debasement, BTC is actually tapping into a $30 trillion addressable market.
3/ On-Chain Levels & Reality Check
Before you go all-in, keep in mind that Glassnode warns that past "decouplings" from stocks during bond sell-offs were often short-lived. This could still be a temporary phase. Here are the key on-chain numbers to watch right now:
Major Resistance (Supply Zone): $83,000 to $86,000 (held by long-term holders).
Major Support Floor: $62,000 to $65,000 (the main accumulation zone).
Profitable Supply: At $78,000 in late August, 68% of all BTC supply was in profit, compared to 65% when BTC traded at the same price back in May.
Institutional Demand: Spot BTC ETFs pulled in average daily inflows of $290 million at the peak of this run, with ETF daily trading volume staying hot at around $3 billion per day.
Remember, Bitcoin still has way higher volatility than physical gold. If $81k–$82k gets rejected by that $83k–$86k long-term holder wall, we could see a quick retest of lower levels before the next big leg up. Stay smart, and keep your risk managed!
Own AI That Works In Dirt
The future of farming uses autonomous robots instead of herbicides. Greenfield Robotics has spent six years developing its technology, with 82 robots deployed across 16 states.
Reserve now for 10% bonus shares when you invest.
Greenfield Robotics is Testing The Waters under tier 2 of Regulation A. No money or other consideration is being solicited, and if sent in response will not be accepted. No offer to buy the securities can be accepted and no part of the purchase price can be received until the offering statement filed by the company with the SEC has been qualified by the SEC. Any such offer may be withdrawn or revoked, without obligation or commitment of any kind, at any time before notice of acceptance given after the date of qualification. An indication of interest involves no obligation or commitment of any kind. “Reserving” shares is simply an indication of interest. There is no binding commitment for investors that reserve shares in this manner to ultimately invest and purchase the shares reserved of the company, or to purchase any shares of the company whatsoever.
🎲 FED RATE HIKE ODDS FLIP TO 50/50: CAN BITCOIN HOLD ABOVE $80K?
Macro trader expectations just went on a wild roller-coaster ride, and Bitcoin is soaking up all the green energy, surging back above the $80,000 mark.
1/ The Wild Fed Odds Flip
The CME Group's FedWatch tool just showed a massive swing in market expectations for the upcoming September 16 Fed meeting.
Just last week, market odds for a Fed rate hike were sitting at 37%. By Thursday, they shot up to 70%. By Friday? They dropped right back down to a clean 50/50 split.
Traders are now split down the middle on whether the Fed will hold rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% or push them up 0.25% to 3.75%–4.00%.
Futures markets are now pushing the timeline for a larger hike (to 4.00%-4.25%) all the way back to March 2027, shifting away from earlier guesses of December 2026.
2/ Oil, Iran, and a Divided Fed
Why are these expectations swinging around so fast? It comes down to war headlines and inflation worries:
Wild swings in oil prices and U.S. bond yields tied to the Iran conflict have investors constantly changing their minds about inflation risk.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faced a deeply split market at Jackson Hole. Even inside the Federal Reserve, officials can't agree on whether they should keep tightening money policy or stand down.
3/ Bitcoin Shoots Near $82K
Bitcoin moved in lockstep with these shifting rate expectations, breaking past $80,000 as news surfaced that the Iran conflict might be nearing an end.
→ BTC spiked to near $82,000 and is currently trading around $81,000 (up about 5% in 24 hours).
Lower odds of a rate hike help push down U.S. bond yields and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). When the dollar and yields drop, risk assets like Bitcoin usually get room to run.
🧠 My Analysis: The Road to September 16
Simple math here: when war panic cools off and rate hike odds drop, capital flows right back into Bitcoin. But can BTC hold above $80K?
That all depends on 2 main things leading up to the September 16 Fed meeting: upcoming U.S. inflation data and geopolitical updates from the Middle East.
If inflation comes in cool and oil stays down, $80K could quickly turn into our new floor. Keep a close eye on the macro charts!
🔥 BURNING HOT TAKES FOR THE ROAD
Hyperliquid Strategies expanded its equity deal to $2.5B to aggressively accumulate $HYPE ( ▲ 6.0% ). $1.5B more for HYPE! Read more
Ethena Pay just dropped its self-custodial dollar account, with up to 6% APY and 5% cashback on $USDE ( ▲ 0.05% ) spending. Read more
Singapore proposed new stablecoin framework requiring 100% reserves and zero interest payouts. No interest allowed. Read more
North Korea's Lazarus Group hackers reportedly dumped $52M in BTC onto Hyperliquid, raising major sanctions alarms. Read more
Hyperliquid is partnering with Kraken parent Payward and Bitnomial to bring perpetual futures to the U.S. Read more
Rate us today!
🤡 SPICY MEME
💌 SHOUTOUT FROM OUR FIRESTARTER
We read your emails, comments, and poll replies daily
Hit reply and say Hello, we'd love to hear from you!
And if you’ve got a friend deep in crypto (or just getting started), feel free to forward this to them. They can sign up here. Cheers!
⚠ This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Traders should conduct thorough research, understand the risks, and carefully evaluate their decisions before investing in cryptocurrency.
