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Markets are seeing a "relief rally" today! $BTC ( ▲ 0.63% ) is steady at $71k as Trump’s 15-point peace plan for Iran calms nerves.

While Asian stocks climbed 1.9% and oil dipped below $100, the energy crisis isn’t over, Strait of Hormuz tensions remain and gold hit $4,600.

It’s a classic "green but cautious" day. Keep your risk management tight as we watch for a final ceasefire! 📈

Here’s what we got for you today:

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Circle, the company behind $USDC ( ▼ 0.01% ), saw its stock fall more than 20% on March 25. It comes after a strong rally earlier this year, when $CRCL ( ▼ 20.11% ) had already climbed more than 170% since February.

Ironically, the business itself has been growing fast. Most of Circle’s revenue comes from interest earned on reserves backing USDC, now worth more than $78B. So why the sudden drop?

1/ The Big Concern: Limits on Stablecoin Rewards

The latest draft of the Clarity Act may restrict platforms from offering interest just for holding stablecoins. In simple terms, it could make stablecoins less attractive for users looking for passive yield.

Possible changes include:

Right now, yield is a major growth driver. Some platforms offer attractive returns:

Circle itself doesn’t directly pay yield. Most rewards come from exchanges and third-party platforms. If those incentives disappear, demand for USDC could weaken.

2/ Tether Adds More Pressure

At the same time, Tether announced it plans to complete a full audit with a Big Four accounting firm. This is a big step toward improving transparency, something Circle has long used as a competitive advantage.

If Tether successfully completes the audit, the trust gap between USDT and USDC could shrink significantly. USDT already has a market cap above $184B.

BUT: Not Everyone Thinks This Is Bad for Circle

Some analysts actually believe the Clarity Act could help Circle. Around 96% of Circle’s revenue comes from interest earned on reserves, mainly U.S. Treasuries.

The proposed law does not touch that revenue stream. Instead, it mainly affects how yield is shared with users. That could reduce pressure on Circle to pass rewards to USDC holders.

Some experts even describe the regulation as a potential “protective moat” for Circle’s business model.

There are a few more factors influencing sentiment:

The Clarity Act is not law yet. The Senate Banking Committee is expected to review it at the end of April, and rules around DeFi are still growing.

Meanwhile, many DeFi platforms are already adjusting reward models to focus more on activity-based incentives instead of passive yield.

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BTC has been quite volatile this year, and it’s down about 4% in the past week. Ongoing geopolitical tension and macro uncertainty are making investors more careful. Recent on-chain data also suggests demand is not as strong as many hoped.

Right now, 4 key indicators are pointing to a more cautious market environment.

#1. Accumulation Trend Score Is Near Zero

Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score is currently close to 0, which usually signals distribution instead of accumulation.

In simple terms, many wallet groups are either selling or just not actively buying. That’s very different from Q4 2024, when strong accumulation across many wallet sizes helped fuel a major rally.

Glassnode notes that for a strong recovery to happen, participation from multiple wallet groups usually needs to return. Without that broad buying activity, momentum tends to stay limited.

#2. Whale Activity Falls to Multi-Year Lows

Data from Santiment shows that large Bitcoin holders (whales) have become unusually quiet. Big players appear to be waiting for clearer signals before entering the market again.

Recent data shows a noticeable drop in large transfers:

According to Santiment, whales may be waiting for more clarity around regulation, especially developments related to the CLARITY Act, as well as broader geopolitical stability.

This doesn’t necessarily mean a big price drop is coming, but it shows that both institutions and retail investors are currently hesitant to make strong moves.

#3. Fundamentals Look Stable but Not Strong

Bitcoin Vector also points out that BTC’s Fundamental Index continues to trend lower. The current situation looks more like “stable but lacking support” rather than a strong accumulation phase preparing for a breakout.

When on-chain signals stay weak, price growth often depends more on outside factors such as:

Without stronger fundamentals, rallies can struggle to last over time.

#4. Network Activity Continues to Decline

CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn also highlights that the Network Activity Index keeps moving down, suggesting overall demand across the Bitcoin network is weakening.

When we combine all 4 signals, the overall picture looks cautious. Bitcoin’s next move may depend more on external catalysts than on strong organic demand.

Once more wallet groups return to accumulation mode, the data suggests BTC could find stronger footing. Until then, the recovery path may remain a bit uneven.

Trump claims the Iran conflict is already “won,” with Tehran agreeing on nuclear limits. But Iran tells mediators it was fooled by US twice earlier? Read more

Backpack launched $BP on Solana with 25% supply airdropped to users and Mad Lads holders. Fairness debates are starting. Read more

Lido just reported revenue dropped 23% as $ETH ( ▲ 1.31% ) staking yields keep shrinking. It's now considering an $LDO ( ▲ 2.92% ) buyback. Read more

CFTC established an Innovation Task Force to shape rules for crypto, AI, and prediction markets. Read more

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⚠ This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Traders should conduct thorough research, understand the risks, and carefully evaluate their decisions before investing in cryptocurrency.