💵 CPI Predicts Bitcoin Trends?

At 7:30 PM on May 13, the US dropped the April CPI data - and yep, the whole financial world (crypto included) was watching. 👀

The result? CPI didn’t shock anyone, but it was enough to give a little boost to some potential coins. Not a full-on pump, but definitely a noticeable uptick.

Here’s what we got for you today:

• ⭐ 5 Things You Shouldn’t Miss

• 💵 CPI Predicts Bitcoin Trends?

• 🎯 Bitcoin is Going Straight to ATH in August 2025 …

• 🤡 Meme Of The Day

⭐ 5 Things You Shouldn’t Miss

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🚀 $ETH.X ( ▲ 4.54% ) has surged ~43.5% over the past 7 days, outperforming Bitcoin ($BTC.X ( ▼ 0.1% ) ) in all timeframes. ETH is now testing a key resistance at $2,617, with a potential path to $3,000 and even $3,442 if bullish momentum continues. ETH’s price rally and increasing ETH/BTC ratio is a strong sign of an altcoin season. Traders and institutions might be rotating capital out of $BTC.X ( ▼ 0.1% ) (which stalled) and into ETH and ETH-based alts, betting on higher upside.

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💵 CPI Predicts Bitcoin Trends?

The latest CPI just hits 4-year low, dropped at 2.3% YoY, lower than the expected 2.4%.

It’s the lowest inflation rate since February 2021! But does it mean Bitcoin’s about to skyrocket?

1️⃣ What is CPI and Why Does It Matter?

CPI (Consumer Price Index) measures the price changes of goods and services like food, housing, healthcare, education, and more.

In the US, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases the CPI every month, and this is the main measure of whether inflation or deflation is occurring.

If CPI rises, it signals inflation; if it drops, it points to deflation.

Why should you care? The Fed uses CPI to decide whether to raise or lower interest rates, which directly affects borrowing costs. When rates go up, it makes borrowing harder, which slows down the economy. When rates go down, it stimulates spending.

Here’s how it works:

• High CPI = Higher interest rates, slowing the economy.

• Low CPI = Lower interest rates, boosting the economy and possibly pushing people toward riskier assets like Bitcoin.

2️⃣ What’s Wrong with CPI? Why Is PCE More Accurate?

CPI isn’t perfect. Here are the issues:

• Fixed Basket: CPI uses a fixed basket of goods that doesn’t account for changes in consumer behavior (rich vs. poor, urban vs. rural).

• Quality: It doesn’t consider quality improvements. For example, a phone might get more expensive, but it’s better.

• Outdated: CPI still relies on old goods while people are spending more on things like streaming services and digital products.

• Ignores Tariffs: It doesn’t reflect import price increases due to tariffs or supply chain issues.

This is where PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) comes in. It adjusts for real spending trends, includes business and government spending, and is more flexible than CPI.

3️⃣ How Does CPI Affect the Market?

CPI is a big deal - it impacts everything from traditional markets to crypto:

• High CPI means the Fed will likely raise interest rates, which slows down spending. This can hurt Bitcoin.

• Low CPI means the Fed can cut rates, stimulating spending and investment in riskier assets like Bitcoin.

With April CPI, $BTC.X ( ▼ 0.1% ) price recorded a modest surge, rising from $103,590 to trade for $104,122 -highest price today.

$ETH.X ( ▲ 4.54% ) is bouncing back to $2,533 after a wild week. Two big reasons why ETH's back in the spotlight:

• The upcoming Pectra upgrade

• And BlackRock’s move to add staking to its proposed ETH ETF. 🧠💼

Meanwhile on OKX’s top gainers list, memecoins are still going wild:

• $DEGEN.X ( ▲ 0.86% ) up 79%

• $NEIRO.X ( ▼ 3.39% ) up 48%

• $MOODENG.X ( ▼ 7.69% ) up 33%

But don’t get it twisted - this isn’t a full market-wide party. 👀

Money’s only flowing into specific trends like ETH ecosystem plays and memecoins. The rest of the market? Still kinda quiet after last week’s fireworks.

4️⃣ Does Lower CPI Mean the Fed Will Cut Interest Rates?

It’s not that simple! While lower CPI is a positive, the Fed also looks at other indicators like:

• Core PCE (which is still above the 2% target)

• GDP growth (only 1.1% in 2025)

• Tariffs (US-China tariffs are still increasing, adding inflationary pressures)

So, while lower CPI might seem like a reason to cut rates, it’s not enough to convince the Fed just yet. They’re being cautious. The market hopes the Fed will cut rates in July 2025, but only if Core PCE drops and tariffs don't cause inflation again. ⏳

5️⃣ Can CPI Predict Bitcoin Trends?

CPI does move Bitcoin, but it’s mostly a short-term indicator:

• Before 2021, crypto folks didn’t care about CPI. But as the Fed raised rates from 0.25% to 5.25% in 2022, CPI became the key factor for Bitcoin’s price movement.

• Bitcoin depends more on the Fed's interest rate decisions and global liquidity.

For example:

• 2017: Bitcoin peaked with low rates and easy money.

• 2018-2019: Bitcoin dropped as interest rates rose.

• 2021: Bitcoin surged after the Fed cut rates again.

Looking ahead, if the Fed keeps rates high, Bitcoin might stay in the $80,000-$100,000 range. But if the Fed cuts rates, Bitcoin could hit $120,000 by early 2026. 📈

🔥🔥 Trader Take

…and if that happens, we could see a strong risk-on reaction across global markets — especially in crypto.

• 🕊️ May 15 – Russia-Ukraine talks: Peace deal? Huge boost for market sentiment.

• 📊 May 15 – US PPI data: Lower = rate cut hopes.

• 🌏 May 16 – China data: Strong numbers = global market push.

Markets are on edge, but these three events could shift momentum fast. Less war, lower inflation, and stronger growth? That’s a cocktail the bulls would love. Let’s see how the week plays out. 👀

🎯 Bitcoin is Going Straight to ATH in August 2025?

We’re entering the most exciting phase of this cycle. All signs are pointing toward a major move from Bitcoin — and potentially the rest of the market. After months of sideways chop and shakeouts, the bulls are finally waking up.

1️⃣ How Bullish is The Current Structure?

Just look at the chart of BTC/USDT:

• We've officially shifted from a downtrend to an uptrend on the daily timeframe.

• After a period of sideways movement, BTC created a flipzone (accumulation area).

• Price then broke out of this flipzone and even retested it — a very strong confirmation of a bullish trend.

Right now, $BTC.X ( ▼ 0.1% ) is reacting to its final supply zone. Expect a little chop over the next few days, but once that’s cleared…. Boom, we’re heading for ATH at $109K.

✅ Conclusion: All indicators show the current market structure is very bullish. A new ATH is highly likely.

📍 Can You Still Accumulate BTC? Where’s the Entry?

Absolutely, there’s still a chance to accumulate more BTC, especially after ATH is broken and we get a D1 retest of the current flipzone.

But again, we’ll need confirmation from the daily chart when the retest happens — I’ll update when it does.

2️⃣ ALTCOIN season - Yes or no?

Let’s look at the Altcoin Season Index (ASI):

• Below 25 = Altcoin accumulation zone

• Above 75 = Altcoin top zone (time to take profit)

Right now, ASI has already moved out of accumulation territory, and it’s climbing. When it hits 75, that’ll be our signal to start taking profit from alts.

3️⃣ Where is BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance)?

Right now, BTC.D is in a bearish structure on the daily timeframe (downtrend). However, I think it might bounce up temporarily to around 69% — a short-term recovery.

If BTC.D hits 69% and flips to a bullish structure, this could trigger:

• $BTC.X ( ▼ 0.1% )  pumping harder

• Followed by a recovery in altcoins

But remember, rotating from BTC to altcoins is risky. Altcoins can dump hard after big runs. If you’re not careful, you might lose the BTC you gained. Only do this if you really understand the market, and are confident in your technical analysis.

4️⃣ When Should You Take Profit?

Based on the current outlook, the best time to take profit might be between August -September 2025, when BTC is expected to hit ATH.

But why so early? In 2021, BTC peaked in November, right? BTC cycles aren’t fixed.

Back in 2021, yes, ATH came in November. But each cycle can shift due to macro factors like:

• Financial policy changes

• Inflation shifts

• Major news like Bitcoin ETF approvals

• Mass adoption by institutions

From 2023–2024, we’re seeing strong early signals, which could mean an early top this cycle, especially if ETFs keep pumping in money and retail FOMO kicks in.

5️⃣ Three Reasons Why This Cycle Could Peak Early

1. Timing from bottom to top

Let’s look at timing patterns from past cycles. Last cycle (2021):

• Bottom: June 22

• ATH: November 10
  → The time from bottom to top was about 5.5 months

Current cycle:

• Local bottom: April 7
  → If we follow the same 5.5-month timeline, the expected ATH would land around September 2025

So why are we targeting August instead?

Because this cycle is running faster, mainly due to the Bitcoin ETF approval. Here’s what’s different:

• Normally, the peak happens in year 4 of the cycle

• But this time, momentum is so strong, we’re already pushing toward ATH in year 3

• The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs brought in massive institutional money early

• Retail FOMO is kicking in ahead of schedule

If ETF flows remain strong and more retail investors pile in, the cycle peak could arrive a month or two earlier — as early as August.

2. Sell pressure from miners, companies, and institutions

Even though the market is bullish, there’s pressure building to sell - especially from major players like:

• Bitcoin miners:

• Public companies & Institutional investors (e.g. MicroStrategy)

• Countries (e.g. El Salvador BTC Reserve - Stacking since 2021)

  

  Source: The National Bitcoin Office (ONBTC) of El Salvador

In Q2, Michael Saylor admitted:

But now that his company is in profit. And they’ve been DCA-ing into BTC consistently.

These were expected to be resolved by now — year 3 of the cycle — but we’re approaching the peak and many issues are still unresolved.

However, if macro issues get resolved by Q3, BTC could keep running — possibly pushing higher toward year-end.

🔥 Trader Take: BTC’s looking strong right now — breakout’s confirmed and it’s eyeing that ATH. There’s still a shot to buy around $105K if we get a clean retest, so no need to FOMO just yet.

Altcoin season’s heating up too, but keep an eye on ASI hitting 75 — that’s your cue to start locking in profits. With ETF momentum and the cycle moving faster than usual, August–September could be the top.

🤡 Meme Of The Day

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This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Traders should conduct thorough research, understand the risks, and carefully evaluate their decisions before investing in cryptocurrency.