Crypto Market Overview: The Calm Before the Break

🏛 Macro Catalyst: Trump Pardons CZ

It’s official that Trump has pardoned Changpeng Zhao (CZ), the founder of Binance, and the crypto market overview doesn’t quite know how to feel about it.

On one hand, it’s a political gesture that signals a friendlier stance toward crypto entrepreneurs. On the other, it raises eyebrows about how much politics now influences market sentiment.

For months, CZ’s legal situation cast a shadow over the exchange token sector. Binance’s global operations were stable, but investor confidence had clearly softened. Now, the pardon gives $BNB.X ( ▲ 6.95% ) an emotional boost, pushing the token’s performance above most large caps in the past week.

💰 Bitcoin Outlook

The long rally of Bitcoin $BTC.X ( ▲ 3.97% ) is starting to cool off after climbing steadily above $126,000. Prices have now eased to around $111,000.

Analysts from Glassnode and CryptoQuant both describe this as a period of market exhaustion, where optimism has given way to caution.

Capital is no longer flowing strongly into spot markets or ETFs; instead, it’s shifting into derivatives, where traders use futures and options to hedge risk or capture volatility.

This rotation doesn’t mean investors are abandoning crypto, it shows that money is still in the system, just moving differently.

In the current crypto market overview, a sustainable recovery will likely need renewed spot demand, calmer derivatives activity, and supportive macro shifts like Fed rate cuts or a return of institutional inflows.

For now, Bitcoin is simply in an accumulation phase, taking a breather, and resetting after an overheated run, not breaking down. It is a pause that could set the stage for the next decisive move.

🌊 Ethereum Watch: The Quiet Power Beneath the Surface

Ethereum $ETH.X ( ▲ 5.77% ) spot ETFs have seen multiple small outflows recently, the crypto market overview remains positive. Over the past week, several funds, particularly BlackRock, Fidelity, and Bitwise, recorded minor withdrawals ranging between 14K and 59K ETH per day.

However, these outflows are relatively small compared to earlier strong inflow days in mid-October, such as +55K ETH on October 14 and +41K ETH on October 15.

Despite short-term fluctuations, the total net inflow still stands above +3.98 million ETH, a clear indication that institutional capital continues to move into Ethereum exposure rather than exiting.

The pattern suggests normal profit-taking or short-term portfolio rebalancing, not a structural reversal. In other words, the market remains healthy and capital is consolidating after strong inflows.

This chart was my projection from a week ago, and as you can see, Ethereum’s price is moving almost exactly along my predicted path. As long as it doesn’t break below $3,400, $ETH.X ( ▲ 5.77% ) remains safely within the expected range.

Just like I mentioned in my earlier crypto market overview post “BTC and ETH Collapse,” I still believe this is the final accumulation phase before a strong rally in the last leg of this cycle.

🟡 Sentiment analysis

The current CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index stands at 32 (Fear), which has persisted for several weeks now. This extended period of fear reflects hesitation and uncertainty in the crypto market overview, but historically, these are the moments when opportunity often hides in plain sight.

Even Bitcoin and Ethereum are showing a strong bearish bias, and this is not the time to panic because even the 4k price - the price that ETH has reached - is not yet the old peak in 2021.

So you might wonder if this is a complete cycle and ETH has really increased?

As the saying goes, “Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.” Most traders are cautious right now, waiting for confirmation, but that hesitation itself creates value. To me, this is not a time to panic, it’s a time to accumulate.

When fear dominates sentiment and prices stay stable, it often signals that the crypto market overview is quietly building a foundation for the next major move up.

📊 Cycle Indicators: NUPL, MVRV, and Liquidity Metrics Signal a Late-Cycle Reset

The MVRV Z-Score, which compares the market capitalization to the realized capitalization (on-chain cost basis), currently sits below 2, far from the historical “red zone” of 7–9 that has marked every major top in previous cycles.

In past bull runs, the Z-Score moved slowly for months during accumulation phases and then rose almost vertically as the market approached euphoria. The fact that it remains this low suggests the market is not overheated and that there is still substantial upside potential before we reach the speculative extremes that usually define a peak.

In simple terms, the current crypto market overview shows Bitcoin’s valuation remains solid and well below the overheated levels seen in previous market peaks.

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator tells the same story. This model signals a cycle peak when the 111-day moving average crosses above the 350-day moving average × 2, usually when price surges above that upper band. At present, Bitcoin’s price is still below the 350DMA × 2 line, and there’s been no crossover, meaning the market hasn’t yet entered a euphoric phase, and still stands in accumulation phase.

Looking at both charts together, Bitcoin seems to be in a late-accumulation, early-growth stage, not the blow-off phase that ends a cycle. Investors should recognize that the market often moves slowly in this zone, and patience is key.

Once momentum builds, however, it tends to accelerate quickly toward the final leg of the cycle. For now, the data strongly suggests that Bitcoin hasn’t topped out and still holds significant upside potential before the next true peak.

📊 Key Takeaway

The market is clearly in an accumulation phase, neither euphoric nor collapsing. Bitcoin and Ethereum are consolidating after long rallies, with capital rotating from spot markets into derivatives and ETFs showing minor outflows but strong overall inflows.

Fear remains dominant across sentiment indicators, yet historical data shows that prolonged fear often precedes major uptrends. Macro signals, such as Trump’s pardon of CZ, hint at a friendlier regulatory tone, while institutional participation continues to provide a solid foundation beneath the surface.

On-chain metrics like the MVRV Z-Score and Pi Cycle Top Indicator both confirm that this is not the top of the cycle. Bitcoin remains far below the historical red zones that marked previous peaks, and the price is still moving under long-term moving averages.

Altogether, the data suggests we are in a late-accumulation phase — a period that demands patience but often rewards conviction. Market sentiment may be cautious now, but structurally, the setup still points toward another major leg higher before the true cycle peak arrives.