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Good day, market watchers! Fed held rates at 3.5% - 3.75% as expected, but Warsh’s new style is short, sharp, and data-driven - less hand-holding than Powell. Inflation still target 2%, labor is solid, and essentials like oil & food are rising, so tighter policy may stick longer.

Meanwhile, US & Iran signed a remote MOU ending the conflict, reopening the Strait of Hormuz early. US futures green, Kospi & Nikkei 225 hitting fresh highs. Markets now weigh Fed hikes vs geopolitical relief. Crypto eyes every move!

Here’s what we got for you today:

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Wall Street is currently obsessed with the trillion-dollar AI IPO wave. With Anthropic, SpaceX, and OpenAI all racing to go public, it’s easy to get caught up in the hype. But while everyone is fighting over these high-valuation stocks, they’re missing a brutal reality: only 5% of installed GPUs are actually running.

The rest are sitting idle, waiting for power and data center capacity that simply doesn't exist yet. The AI boom isn't hitting a software ceiling; it's hitting a physical brick wall. We’ll cover:

If you’re betting on the AI revolution, you need to understand that the companies winning aren't the ones writing the best code; they're the ones solving the physical scarcity of power 👇.

The Kevin Warsh era at the Fed just officially kicked off, and let’s be honest - it wasn't the "dovish pivot" the bulls were hoping for. In his first meeting as Chair, Warsh delivered a masterclass in macro-hawkishness, leaving both Wall Street and the crypto markets scrambling to reprice their entire 2026 outlook.

1/ The rate hold that "felt" like a hike

The Fed held rates steady at 3.5% - 3.75%, which everyone expected. But the fine print was a total rug pull. Fed officials significantly hiked their 2026 inflation (PCE) forecasts to 3.6% - way higher than the 2.7% predicted just back in March.

Even worse, the Dot Plot projections got super hawkish. Half the FOMC now expects another rate hike this year. We went from "when will they cut?" to "are they going to hike again?" in a single afternoon. The narrative has shifted from easy money to higher for longer in a heartbeat.

2/ Warsh’s "communication blackout"

If you liked Jerome Powell’s predictable press conferences, get ready for a cold shower. Warsh is tearing up the Fed’s communication playbook. He didn't just give a short, punchy press conference (the shortest in 8 years) he basically signaled that he’s ditching the "Dot Plot" and the constant hand-holding we’ve relied on to trade macro trends.

His logic? The Fed shouldn't "manage expectations”, they should just react to the data. For us in crypto, that’s a nightmare. Without that "easing bias" safety net, volatility is going to go through the roof.

🧠 Why your portfolio just bled

Markets don't hate "high rates", they hate uncertainty. And Warsh just injected pure chaos into the system:

→ If the Fed thinks inflation is winning, they’ll keep draining liquidity. Don't fight the Fed on this one. Keep your leverage low, stop chasing "V-shape" recovery pumps, and watch the PCE data. If inflation doesn't cool, we might see another hike before the year ends - and that’s a scenario no one in the crypto space is ready for yet.

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CME Group - the absolute king of traditional derivatives - is officially suing the CFTC to kill the new crypto perpetual futures (perps) market on platforms like Kalshi and Coinbase.

If you’ve been enjoying on-shore perps in the U.S. instead of offshore "sketchy-land," listen up. This lawsuit could change everything about where and how you trade.

1/ The CME playbook: "If we don't own it, it’s illegal"

CME CEO Terrence Duffy is arguing that crypto perps are legally "swaps," not futures. Why does that matter? Because under the Dodd-Frank Act (the massive financial reform law passed after the 2008 global crisis), swaps have a totally different regulatory framework than futures.

CME’s angle is aggressive: they claim they hold exclusive licensing rights for the major price benchmarks used to track crypto. If these products are legally classified as swaps, CME argues that they effectively have to run through CME’s infrastructure.

→ They’re basically telling the CFTC: "You approved the wrong product for the wrong venue, and you’re stepping on our IP."

2/ Why your trading experience is at stake

For years, U.S. traders were forced offshore to get their perps fix. When the CFTC finally green-lit Kalshi and Coinbase to offer these products in May, it was a massive win for the industry. Volume on Kalshi’s BTC perps hit $1 billion in days - proving that domestic demand is absolutely insane.

If CME wins this lawsuit, we’re looking at 2 nightmare scenarios:

🧠 Trad-Fi vs. Crypto-Native

CME is watching volume drain from their legacy gold/ oil futures to leaner, on-chain-friendly platforms like Kalshi. This lawsuit is a desperate move to stop the bleeding and force us back into their "gatekeeper" model. While the CFTC wants to open access, CME is fighting to keep their exclusive club doors locked tight.

If you’re trading perps on Kalshi or Coinbase, stay alert. CME has the lawyers and the lobby to make things messy. They’ll try to shut down the most popular product in crypto just to protect their bottom line.

U.S. and Iran signed an MOU to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing energy supply fears and helping global markets find their footing. Read more

Coinbase ($COIN ( ▼ 2.57% )) is gearing up to launch 1:1 tokenized stocks, letting users trade real equity on-chain and collect dividends just like traditional shareholders. Read more

Bearish sentiment hits Strategy’s $STRC ( ▼ 3.04% ). Preferred shares closed at $89 today, marking a new low since the project’s IPO. Read more

Back from the dead? Sam Bankman-Fried teased plans to launch a new token project as soon as he finishes his prison sentence. Read more

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⚠ This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Traders should conduct thorough research, understand the risks, and carefully evaluate their decisions before investing in cryptocurrency.