😮‍💨 Market Breathes, Bull Run Brewing

DePIN is getting a lot of attention in Web3 right now, but before you start, there are a few things you should know from Messari.

From why some projects are valued higher to how infrastructure costs play a role, these insights could seriously impact your investment.

Here’s what we got for you today:

• ⭐ 6 Things You Shouldn’t Miss

• 🌡️ Bitcoin’s Rebound Without Overheating

• 💎 8 Must-Know Key Insights When Investing in DePI …

• 🤡 Meme Of The Day

⭐ 6 Things You Shouldn’t Miss

🚀 Between May 12–18, Strategy went all in and bought 7,390 more BTC worth a whopping $764.9 million — at an average price of $103,498 per $BTC.X ( ▼ 2.96% ) . That brings their total holdings to a massive 576,230 BTC, currently valued at around $40.18 billion. Saylor seems to know exactly when to drop the news. Looks like the big players are making their moves while everyone else is still watching.

💨 Vitalik Buterin proposes a new model: "Partially Stateless Nodes" for Ethereum to boost gas limits by 10–100x, let you run a node from your laptop or even phone. Before, running a full Ethereum node means handling over 1.3 TB of data — not realistic for most users. This move could lead to more transactions per second, and lower gas costs.

🏦 JPMorgan’s CEO, once a harsh Bitcoin critic, now lets clients buy Bitcoin through the bank. The bank won’t custody the Bitcoin itself, but will reflect the asset in customer account statements. Morgan Stanley is also allowing advisors to offer Bitcoin spot ETFs to qualified clients. Looks like TradFi just can’t ignore crypto anymore.

⚙️ Anza just rolled out Alpenglow, their biggest upgrade yet for Solana. It aims to cut latency down to 150 milliseconds, which sounds promising. But they’re honest — Alpenglow doesn’t fix everything. The network outage risk is still there, and that’s been a sore spot for Solana for a while now.

📈 Arthur Hayes, the former BitMEX CEO, thinks Bitcoin needs to hit bigger price and volume levels — around $150K to $200K — before altcoins can really take off for good. He’s super bullish, expecting BTC to reach $250K by the end of 2025 and maybe even $1 million before 2028, especially if Trump comes back as U.S. President.

📜 The GENIUS Act just got a big win in the Senate, even after 2 weeks pushback. But there’s still a loophole letting President Trump’s stablecoin plans off the hook, which has Senator Warren and others pretty upset. This one’s far from over.

🌡️ Bitcoin’s Rebound Without Overheating

Is a Clear Sign of a Healthy Bull Market?

Bitcoin’s getting ready to push past its old highs again — but this time, it feels different. The usual wild spikes in funding rates and buy volume? They’re not here.

1️⃣ Past Highs Led to Overheating and Corrections (Chart – Boxes 1 and 2)

• Every time $BTC.X ( ▼ 2.96% ) hit new all-time highs earlier this cycle, Binance saw big jumps in market buy volume and funding rates.

• That overheating caused long corrections where lots of investors got nervous and sold off.

• After the market cooled down, Bitcoin eventually pushed to new highs again.

2️⃣ This Time, No Overheating and Buy Volume Is Actually Dropping (Chart – Box 3)

• Now, after the recent dip, Bitcoin’s rebound is happening without crazy funding rates.

• Binance buy volume is actually going down — the opposite of before.

3️⃣ Why This Is a Healthier Rally, Not Weak Momentum

• Lower buy volume doesn’t mean momentum is weak. It shows the market is lighter and more cautious, which helps avoid sudden crashes caused by overheating.

• Sentiment is getting better, but buyers are more disciplined this time. This steady, careful buying builds a stronger, more sustainable rally—not just hype.

• Undercurrents from Whales and Retail FOMO 🐳

  → Whales (holding 10 $BTC.X ( ▼ 2.96% ) or more) have started buying again in recent weeks. But they’re not rushing in to chase the top — mostly watching and waiting for clearer signals before making big moves.

  → Meanwhile, retail investors (with less than 1 $BTC.X ( ▼ 2.96% ) or between 1 and 10 $BTC.X ( ▼ 2.96% ) ) are jumping back into FOMO buying. This flips the previous trend where they were mostly selling.

4️⃣ Market Buy Volume Has Been Climbing Since 2023

Even with ups and downs, buy volume has steadily climbed since 2023.

→ That means there’s still solid interest and confidence in Bitcoin. So, it’s not time to jump ship yet (Chart – Yellow Arrow).

🔥🔥 Trader Take:

We can’t say exactly when Bitcoin will break its old high. But all the data points to a strong setup - no hype, just steady strength.

This slow and steady rebound beats the wild pumps from before. It could mean the bull run lasts longer with less drama. Keep watching, but don’t panic sell just yet.

💎 8 Must-Know Key Insights When Investing in DePIN in 2025

DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks) is quickly becoming one of the hottest narratives in Web3. But before you throw your money into tokens like $FIL.X ( ▼ 6.53% ) or $RENDER.X ( ▼ 9.43% ) , there are 8 must-know insights that could make or break your investment.

1️⃣ Why Are DRNs Valued More Than PRNs in DePIN?

Firstly, DRNs and PRNs represent the two main architectural groups in the DePIN ecosystem.

• DRNs (Digital Resource Networks) = Digital Services. DRNs focus on digital resources such as compute, storage, and bandwidth. Ex: $RENDER.X ( ▼ 9.43% ) , $FIL.X ( ▼ 6.53% )

• PRNs (Physical Resource Networks) = Real-World Data Collectors. PRNs aim to collect physical data through sensors, IoT devices, or decentralized wireless networks (DeWi). Ex: $HNT.X ( ▼ 5.86% )  

According to Messari, the average Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of DRNs is $132M, while PRNs lag far behind at $36M. That’s a 3.5x difference!

So… why the big gap? This disparity stems from how the market classifies the risk and potential of the two groups.

📌 DRNs benefit from the intersection of big narratives like AI, cloud computing, and Web3 storage, which makes them super attractive to investors.

For example, projects like Render ($RENDER) or Filecoin ($FIL), they’re tapping into high-demand use cases like compute for AI/ML or secure, decentralized data storage.

📌 On the flip side, PRNs — like Helium or WeatherXM — are grounded in the physical world. They need real-world hardware rollouts and strong community adoption. That naturally adds more friction, more volatility, and limits how fast they can scale.

2️⃣ Does Revenue Really Matter in DePIN Valuation?

Short answer is Yes — but it’s complicated.

Messari shows that the correlation between a DePIN project’s revenue and its Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) is just 0.36. That means there's a positive but weak-to-moderate connection.

→ So yes, revenue plays a role, but it’s definitely not the whole story.

Projects like Filecoin ($FIL), Render ($RENDER), and Internet Computer ($ICP) rank high in both revenue and FDV — that’s what we’d expect. But then there are others, like Covalent $CQT.X ( ▼ 2.2% ) or $NATIX.X ( ▲ 18.79% ) , pulling in revenue but still sitting at low valuations.

This reflects that revenue quality (e.g. recurring revenue vs. one-off revenue) and other factors such as trading liquidity, token supply adjustment roadmap, and long-term growth expectations play a more important role in shaping the P/S ratio.

Currently, liquidity is still the biggest driving factor, but the trend is changing as new DePIN projects need to focus on revenue growth and fundamentals to access better liquidity.

3️⃣ How Much More Revenue Do DRNs Make Than PRNs?

Based on data from Q1/2023 to Q1/2025, DRNs consistently maintain higher median revenue than PRNs. Specifically, in Q1/2025, DRNs' median revenue is $1.5M, compared to $730K for PRNs, a difference of approximately 105%.

It comes down to their business models.

• DRNs usually offer “as-a-service” models → easy to generate recurring or query-based revenue.

• PRNs, on the other hand, depend on crowd-sensing data → often of lower value and have difficulty generating a steady revenue stream.

However, the 105% revenue gap does not explain the entire FDV spread, suggesting that factors such as growth expectations and liquidity play a larger role in valuation.

4️⃣ Why Do DRNs Have a Much Higher Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio Than PRNs?

We already know DRNs are doing better in revenue and valuation... But they also command WAY higher P/S ratios.

For example, Filecoin and Render have P/S ratios above 1000x, while WiFi Map and WeatherXM are just below 100x.

This difference reflects the market's expectations of long-term growth potential.

• DRNs are seen as the future “Web3 AWS” or “Web3 Cloudflare” with global reach and massive demand.

• PRNs face real-world limitations. They’re bound by geography, logistics, and how fast people adopt the tech - and in turn, limits how “big” they can grow in the market’s eyes.

Additionally, DRNs typically have better liquidity and benefit from a strong AI/cloud-related narrative, which pushes the P/S ratio up.

The market is clearly favoring projects with large scale potential and deep integration into modern technology trends.

5️⃣ Do High Infrastructure Costs Actually Help DRN Valuations?

You’d think high costs would be a downside, right? But in DePIN, it’s not so simple.

DRNs usually require ~$2K/year to run a node vs. only ~$300/year for PRNs. DRNs need heavy-duty hardware — GPUs, storage systems, massive bandwidth — to support compute or storage services. PRNs often tap into existing infrastructure like apps or basic sensors — way more lightweight.

→ Turns out, high infra costs actually bring some benefits:

• Creates a barrier to entry – just like early Bitcoin or Ethereum mining, where only serious players with real hardware could participate.

• Filters for high-quality node operators – fewer bad actors, more reliable resources.

• Improves network trust – better performance, more consistent uptime, and overall stronger infrastructure.

From an investor’s POV, high costs can act as a quality signal — especially when you're talking about demanding use cases like AI/ML processing or decentralized storage.

However, there is no clear evidence that high costs directly drive valuations, or are simply a correlation.

6️⃣ Does a Centralized Scaling Model Boost DePIN Valuation?

The answer might surprise you — because when people love decentralization, centralized expansion is winning the valuation game (for now).

DePIN projects using a “concentrated scaling” model have a median FDV of $145M. Compare that to just $31M for “distributed scaling” models. That’s nearly a 5x difference.

Because:

• The concentrated scaling model is all about efficiency, following the classic 80/20 logistics rule: 20% of the infrastructure (concentrated nodes) delivers 80% of the capacity.

• Both Render ($RENDER) or Akash ($AKT.X ( ▼ 11.32% ) ) use this model by clustering compute power in high-density areas.

→ They can respond to demand more quickly and at scale, compared to more distributed projects like Helium ($HNT), which depend on end-user devices.

→ That’s why the market tends to reward these centralized-but-scalable models with higher valuations, especially among DRNs.

7️⃣ Which DePIN Projects Are DRNs vs. PRNs?

DRNs and PRNs include projects with different characteristics and objectives.

Based on classification, DRNs are in the majority and have more diversity: Compute, Storage, Bandwidth / Data Distribution.

PRNs focus on physical data or wireless networks: Sensor Networks, Decentralized Wireless (DeWi), Energy.

So, what’s the key difference?

• DRNs are attracting developers and builders from cloud, AI, and Web2, thanks to their compatibility with “as-a-service” models (compute/storage/etc.). They’re easier to plug into existing demand, and that opens the door to faster growth and more capital.

• PRNs, on the other hand, depend heavily on hardware deployment and community participation — things that are harder to scale. That makes growth slower and more localized.

8️⃣ How is DePIN Being Valued Compared to L1 and DeFi?

DePIN is positioned between L1 (Layer-1) and DeFi in terms of P/S ratio:

• L1s (Layer-1s) — like Ethereum ($ETH.X ( ▼ 4.77% ) ) and Solana (SO— lead the pack with sky-high P/S ratios, often around 1000x. They’re the foundational layers of the entire blockchain ecosystem.

• DeFi projects — like DEXs and lending protocols — fall lower, with P/S ratios typically between 100x–500x. That’s because DeFi is super competitive, and many products have been commoditized.

• DePIN - right in the middle — with a P/S ratio around 100x, reflecting the balance between attractive narrative and actual revenue.

Unlike many “pay first, build later” crypto models that ran out of steam, DePIN projects generate real cash flow from users — today.

That’s a big reason why value-focused investors are starting to look DePIN’s way.

🔥🔥 Trader Take: In short

• DRNs are priced higher than PRNs thanks to narrative AI/cloud, scalability, infrastructure costs $2K/year vs $300/year.

• Revenue has a weak impact. Liquidity and revenue quality (recurring/one-off) are more important.

• DRN revenue to exceed PRN by 105% due to more efficient "as-a-service" (compute/storage) integration.

• Higher DRN P/S thanks to scale expectations (Web3 AWS) and strong liquidity.

• DRN support infrastructure costs: $2K/year of DRNs creates barriers, improves network quality, but pricing impact is unclear.

• Concentrated scaling model to increase FDV, optimizing efficiency according to the 80/20 rule.

• DePIN between L1, DeFi, thanks to real revenue, suitable for value investors.

🤡 Meme Of The Day

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This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Traders should conduct thorough research, understand the risks, and carefully evaluate their decisions before investing in cryptocurrency.