🧨 $BTC Headed for $50K??

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Last night was a full-on roller coaster for the crypto market. $BTC ( ▼ 0.54% ) suddenly dumped to ~$72.9K, the lowest since Nov 2024, then bounced back to nearly $76K in a few hours.

$ETH ( ▼ 1.64% ) followed the same path, dipped to $2.1K, now trading around $2.3K. Main drivers:

• 🖤 U.S. shot down an Iranian drone in the Arabian Sea

• 🖤 U.S. increased military presence across the Middle East

• 🖤 House passed bill to avoid government shutdown

Do we sit out, DCA, or take the short?

Here’s what we got for you today:

• 👀 A multi Billion dollar payday

• ⭐ Vitalik Buterin sold 700+ ETH? 🤔

• ⭐ “Crypto Winter” or another shakeout?

• 🔥 Burning hot takes for the road

🚀 The $330B Opportunity: Why Your Stablecoins Are Sleeping on the Job

Most investors use stablecoins like digital cash. But the smart money is moving toward Yield-Generating Stablecoins - a market projected to explode to $330B by 2030!

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• Exactly which risks could vaporize your capital (and how to spot them)

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• A clear guide on how to front-run the institutions before BlackRock and Franklin Templeton fully take over this lane

You have probably noticed BTC hovering around $75k. It feels safe. But my analysis suggests this "boredom" is exactly what fuels the next leg up for high-beta assets 👇

• Bitcoin Naps at $75k While AI and Tech Coins Wake Up Fast → The King of Crypto is taking a breather at the highs, but smart money is already rotating into AI and privacy narratives. Here is what you need to watch next

⁉ VITALIK SOLD 700+ $ETH DESPITE ETH’S RECOVER?

Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, just sold around 705 $ETH ( ▼ 1.64% ) , even as the market is bouncing back. But this wasn’t a panic sell or exit.

On-chain records show he didn’t do it for personal profit this is part of a long-term funding plan to support public goods and open-source infrastructure.

Some ETH went straight to Kanro, his public health-focused charity. He’s done this before too, in Jan 2025, he sold 28 different meme coins (~$984K) and also donated the funds to Kanro.

Here’s what happened this time:

• The first batch: 211.84 ETH (~$500K) → fully sent to Kanro

• The second batch: 493 ETH → also aligned with long-term use

• He shared last week that he pulled 16,384 ETH out for projects spanning the next few years

• He’s funding: open-source tools, secure software/hardware, governance systems, and even biotech

In a post last week, Vitalik shared that he withdrew 16,384 ETH for upcoming long-term initiatives. He still holds 235,268 ETH (over $549M), so this isn’t even a dent in his bags.

He said Ethereum Foundation will begin “saving more over the next 5 years,” and he personally wants to help fund important work that would otherwise rely on Foundation grants.

That includes:

• Open-source software and hardware

• Secure systems in finance, media, governance, OS, and even biotech

• Privacy-preserving staking research to generate sustainable long-term yield

And despite all this ETH hitting the market, ETH price went down in the last 24 hours, now around $2,2K.

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❄ CRYPTO WINTER? BURRY - YES. TIGER - NO. WHO’S RIGHT?

Crypto’s been shaky lately. BTC is down 40% from its October peak of $126K. Altcoins are also down 20-40% since the Jan 2024 FOMC meeting. And now the big question flying around is: “Are we back in a crypto winter?”

1. Burry’s Warning: BTC to $50K, and a Domino Effect

Michael Burry, the investor from ‘Big Short’, warned in a Substack post that Bitcoin’s decline triggered over $1B in gold and silver liquidations by institutions last month.

He believes if BTC drops to $50,000, it could cause:

• Crypto mining firms to go bankrupt

• Tokenized metals futures collapse (his words: “a black hole”)

• No one left buying

He also called out the recent ETF-driven pump as pure speculation, not real adoption. According to him, Bitcoin hasn’t proven itself as “digital gold”, or even a real safe haven.

Now here’s where Burry’s warning starts hitting real companies.

a. Strategy (Michael Saylor’s firm):

• Bought a ton of BTC at an average of $76K

• They’re now sitting on $17.44B in unrealized losses (Q4 2024)

• Their market cap shrank from $128B in July to $40B now

• Their mNAV ratio fell from 2.0 → 1.1 (1.0 is the danger zone)

If that drops below 1, they may have to sell BTC, even though Saylor always said they’d “never sell.”

b. BitMine, backed by Peter Thiel and led by Tom Lee (Fundstrat) is even worse off

• Holding 4.3M ETH bought at $3,826 avg

• ETH now ~$2,300 → over $6B in unrealized losses

Analysts are worried. If firms like this start selling, even a small amount could crash both token prices and stock prices way harder than what they gain from the sale. Basically, they’re stuck.

2. Tiger: This Isn't a Winter, It’s a New Phase

Tiger Research strongly disagrees with the “crypto winter” narrative.

They say past winters (Mt. Gox 2014, ICO collapse 2018, Terra-FTX 2022) were caused by internal failures, like fraud, hacks, and trust collapses.

And unlike before, there’s no mass exit of talent. Builders are still here. Tiger breaks the market into 3 zones now:

• Regulated zone - low volatility, safe-ish

• Unregulated zone - still wild, high risk

• Infra layer - like stablecoins, powering both sides

ETF money is mostly going into Bitcoin, not altcoins. So we don’t get those “everything pumps together” rallies anymore. The next big wave only comes when:

1. New breakout apps show up (probably in the wild west zone)

2. Macro conditions ease up (aka rates, liquidity, etc.)

Until then, it’s not winter. It’s limbo. And limbo is when real builders start gaining ground while others freeze.

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🔥 BURNING HOT TAKES FOR THE ROAD

Elon Musk just teased: “$DOGE ( ▲ 4.15% ) to the moon” next year. First it was CZ with his supercycle. Then Justin Sun said he’s “all in AI.” Read more

Vitalik Buterin says Ethereum’s Layer 2 vision is outdated. He’s rethinking the whole “rollup-first” future. L2s may never decentralize. Read more

Tether earned $10B profit in 2025, despite a 23% drop from 2024. It’s becoming crypto’s central bank behind $USDT ( ▼ 0.06% ) . Read more

Trump’s White House held a secretive crypto x banking meeting on stablecoin yields. Still no verdict, but Coinbase & DeFi rules are on the table. Read more

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⚠ This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Traders should conduct thorough research, understand the risks, and carefully evaluate their decisions before investing in cryptocurrency.