💎 XRP Price Prediction: Can It Finally Smash $4?

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$XRP.X ( ▲ 4.43% ) has long been one of the most controversial and resilient tokens in crypto history. Created by Ripple Labs, XRP is designed to enable instant, low-fee cross-border payments between financial institutions - a sector many other blockchains tend to ignore.

Despite years of legal battles with the SEC, XRP has proven one thing: it’s hard to kill. And in 2025, the narrative is shifting again. The shackles are finally off, and the question on everyone's mind is: what's next?

Let’s break down the performance, upcoming narratives, and how I’m personally approaching this token in Q4, including a trading strategy, in-depth technical analysis, and data-driven price prediction based on current market sentiment.

The Biggest Obstacle is Gone

Before we look forward, we have to understand the massive change that just happened. For years, the SEC lawsuit hung over XRP like a dark cloud, arguing it was an unregistered security. That legal battle officially ended this year.

The final judgment was clear: a $125,035,150 civil penalty and, most importantly, the confirmation that secondary-market sales of XRP are not considered securities. This ruling removed the single biggest weight that was holding XRP back. It provided the regulatory clarity everyone was waiting for and set the stage for new trading strategies and bullish price predictions.

Q4 2025 Narratives: What Could Drive the Next Leg

Now: what’s going to light the match?

SEC Chair Denies SEC–CFTC Merger Talk

SEC Chair Paul Atkins has shut down speculation about a potential SEC–CFTC merger, clarifying that the two agencies will not combine but instead pursue closer harmonization of rules to ease overlap in crypto oversight.

Speaking at a joint roundtable, Atkins stressed that digital assets remain a priority, with both agencies coordinating definitions and compliance frameworks rather than competing. He also hinted at the future of tokenized securities, noting that while instant settlement is possible, regulators may introduce “speed bumps” or guardrails to prevent operational risks. For XRP, this backdrop strengthens market sentiment and adds credibility to any price prediction models.

ETF approvals & institutional flow

Many analysts point to October as a pivot month, with the SEC potentially ruling on $XRP.X ( ▲ 4.43% ) ETF filings. If approved, funds could cascade in, driving both liquidity and bullish technical analysis setups. Any trading strategy for Q4 should factor in this potential catalyst.

Whales are buying, and supply is shrinking.

When major holders accumulate large sums and reserves on exchanges shrink, even modest demand can push prices upward rapidly. The 120M XRP bought in three days is meaningful in that light

RLUSD & real use case adoption

As more settlement volume shifts into RLUSD on the XRP Ledger, XRP strengthens its utility role. With BNY Mellon custody and Ripple’s acquisitions, the use case expands. Any trading strategy should integrate this macro adoption angle alongside pure chart setups.

Technical Analysis: What the Chart is Telling Me?

Alright, let's get technical. Narratives are great, but the chart is where the rubber meets the road. Here's what I'm seeing at the time writing this.

The Big Picture behind the trend line

On the Daily chart:

• Since August, XRP has been moving under a descending resistance line. This means sellers are in control.

• Price is now consolidating close to this resistance, forming a downward-sloping channel.

The RSI is backing this up

RSI has been making higher lows while price made lower lows. A bullish divergence happens.

As RSI is near neutral (44 - 49), there’s room for upside momentum.

A breakout above the RSI downtrend line would confirm buyers stepping in.

And Chart Pattern?

What I'm seeing is a bullish flag chart pattern. There was a huge spike up, and now the price is just chilling in a tight range. Both the price action and momentum are hinting that the path of least resistance is to the upside. It looks like it's getting ready to pop.

In this case, the next trend will be upward like this:

For traders, these technical analysis cues suggest that $XRP.X ( ▲ 4.43% ) is preparing for a breakout, making now the time to refine your trading strategy

My Game Plan

So, here’s my game plan for how I'm looking to trade this setup.

🔥 My Entry Strategy: There are a few ways I might get in.

• If I'm feeling aggressive, I'll jump in the moment it breaks and closes above that $3.00 resistance, as long as there's a solid pop in volume to confirm the move.

• For a safer, more conservative play, I'd wait for it to break past $3.00, then come back down to touch that level and prove it has flipped to support.

• There's also an anticipatory entry, buying near the bottom of the pattern around $2.75, but that's a higher-risk move.

🛡️ Stop-Loss: Risk management is everything. I'd place my stop-loss just below the recent low, somewhere in the $2.60–$2.65 range. If I wanted a tighter leash on it, I'd set it just below the pattern's support line at $2.70.

🎯 Target Zones

🧮 Risk-Reward Ratio

The best part about this setup is that the risk is clearly defined. Depending on my entry, this trade offers a great risk-reward ratio of about 2.5 to 4, making it a high-quality plan to execute.

Market Sentiment

Looking at the market today, it's a real mixed bag. You've got some coins like IP and XPL getting hammered, down over 10%, while others like ZEC and LDO are ripping higher. Market is playing favorites right now, it's not a 'rising tide lifts all boats' kind of day.

Bitcoin and Ethereum, the market leaders, are slightly positive on the day (BTC +1.9%, ETH +2%), which sets a supportive macro backdrop. Historically, when BTC stabilizes, altcoins like XRP benefit from risk-on flows. This correlation matters for building a trading strategy, as it helps traders decide whether to lean into breakout setups or adopt more cautious range trades.

Market is basically holding its breath right now. We're in that middle ground between neutral and greedy. Traders aren't fearful, but they're not throwing money around recklessly either.

XRP’s Position in the Market

$XRP.X ( ▲ 4.43% ) is currently ranked #4 in the global cryptocurrency market, sitting firmly among the top assets by market capitalization. For a coin to hold a top spot like that, especially after years of regulatory battles, it tells you there’s still a ton of investor confidence and deep liquidity behind it. Right now, it’s trading around $2.90, and you can find it on all the major exchanges—Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, you name it—so there’s never an issue with liquidity.

October has historically been a shaky, consolidative month for XRP. However, it often sets the stage for a massive Q4 rally. Look at the history:

• Q4 2017: +1,064%

• Q4 2020: +240%

• Q4 2021: +20%

If this pattern repeats, October could be the final month for accumulation before a sharp rebound in November and December.

The pieces are in place: the legal battle is over, major catalysts are on the horizon, and the chart is showing bullish potential. Now, we watch to see if the breakout confirms.