🧨 $HYPE: $1B Burn or Suicide

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Fed Chair Powell basically signaled he is "comfortable" waiting on rates. He is in no rush. That means if today's CPI print comes in hot, the hope for quick cuts is likely dead. But if inflation cools down, we could see a nice push higher.

However, Trump declared the next Fed Chair will cut rates aggressively. Right now Kevin Hassett (52% vote on Polymarket) - who happens to be very pro-crypto.

So we have Powell hitting the brakes while the potential next guy is getting ready to slam the gas.

👀 Who do you think the market listens to right now: The current Fed or the future one?

Here’s what we got for you today:

• 👀 $190K Bitcoin in 90 days?

• ⭐ Is the New ICO Meta a Trap?

• ⭐ $HYPE ignites a $1B bonfire

• 🔥 Burning hot takes for the road

$190K Bitcoin in 90 Days? I know, I know. That number sounds like "engagement farming." 🙄 But before you scroll past, you need to see the chart that Julien Bittel (GMI) just shared. It’s not based on hype, it’s based on a specific technical trigger that has happened in every bull cycle.

It’s called the RSI Reset. Historically, whenever this signal flashes, Bitcoin chops sideways for exactly 20 days before the next violent leg up.

Guess what day we are on right now?

🚨 BEFORE YOU APE: THE NEW ICO META IS A TRAP

Crypto Twitter is buzzing again. The ICO is back.

So, what is an ICO?

Think of an ICO (Initial Coin Offering) as the crypto version of a Kickstarter or an IPO (Initial Public Offering). A project raises money by selling its own new tokens to early investors in exchange for established crypto like ETH, SOL, or USDC.

→ That means you give them capital to build; they give you tokens cheap (hopefully) before they list on exchanges.

Right now, everyone thinks they found the next MegaETH or Plasma. Teams are ditching airdrops (because farming is broken) and asking for your money upfront to get "skin in the game."

But here is the brutal truth: 9 out of 10 of these will go to zero. Crypto works in cycles. One project starts a meta (MegaETH), it succeeds, and suddenly 50 copycats appear thinking success is copy-paste. It rarely is.

Before you send your hard-earned ETH to a contract, let’s pause. Don't be exit liquidity. Here is your Survival Checklist:

1. Product > Powerpoint

Ignore the fancy pitch deck and the KOL shill threads. Ask one question: Does this actually work TODAY? If the product only makes sense in a "future narrative" or requires 10 different assumptions to work, it’s a gamble, not an investment.

• 🚩 Red Flag: If they can't explain what it does in one sentence.

• 🚩 Red Flag: If a wallet tries to launch a token. (Why do you need a token for a wallet, bro?)

2. Real Metrics vs. "Monad" Metrics

We all saw what happened with Monad. A dashboard full of "active users" means nothing if it’s just sybil bots farming points. You need to look for organic demand. Are people using the product because it's good, or just because there's a carrot dangling at the end?

→ My rule: If the incentives stop and the users leave, the project is dead on arrival.

3. Who is the Exit Liquidity? (Hint: It might be you)

Check the cap table. Who backed this? If Tier-1 VCs got in at a $10M valuation and they are selling to you at a $500M FDV public sale... you are the yield. Understand the Tokenomics:

• Vesting: When do the VCs unlock?

• FDV: A $1B FDV in a bull run is fine. A $1B FDV in this choppy market is suicide.

4. The "Vibe" Check (Marketing)

MegaETH won because they controlled the narrative. They made you care. Bad projects hide behind buzzwords like "The ChatGPT of Web3 DePIN." 🙄 If the team is anon, that’s fine, but they better have shipped code before. If they are ghosts with no GitHub history, you are just donating to their vacation fund 😃.

My Take: Don't Get Fogo'd

The current market is unforgiving. Even the loudest launches are struggling to hold a $100M - $300M FDV. This isn't "free money" era anymore. The winners of this ICO wave will be the ones with real revenue and products that survive scrutiny. The losers will just be lessons for the next cycle.

Slow down. Read the docs. Check the unlocks. If it smells like hype without substance, keep your stablecoins. Choose wisely, anon. 🥃

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 🚀 COMMUNITY REQUEST: AI X CRYPTO SERIES

🔥 HYPERLIQUID WANTS TO BURN $1 BILLION. YES, WITH A "B".

While we are all distracted by the ICO meta, Hyperliquid ($HYPE ( ▼ 8.95% ) ) is quietly preparing one of the biggest supply shocks in DeFi history. The Hyper Foundation just dropped a bombshell proposal: Burn the entire Assistance Fund.

That is 37.1 Million $HYPE (roughly $1 Billion at current prices) potentially getting deleted from existence.

Here is the breakdown of what is happening and why this is a "Hail Mary" play for the $HYPE chart.

1. The "Black Hole" Proposal 🕳️

The target is the Assistance Fund. This wallet holds 3.7% of the total supply. The address (0xfefe...) actually has no private key. It functions like a burn address on Ethereum.

→ The Foundation wants to make it official. If Validators vote "YES" between Dec 21 - Dec 24, this stack is legally and technically recognized as BURNED. No take-backs. No "emergency unlocks." Gone forever.

2. The Bull Case: The Ultimate Supply Shock

Let’s be real, $HYPE ( ▼ 8.95% ) has been down bad lately. Since the massive team unlock in late November, whales have been puking their bags, and the chart has been ugly. Burning $1B worth of tokens is a massive signal. It’s effectively a buyback that has already been collected from trading fees, now being permanently removed from the sell side.

→ The Signal: It tells the market, "We care about the token price."

3. The Risk: Flying Without a Parachute? 🪂

Here is the part the moon-boys are ignoring. That Assistance Fund was the insurance policy. It was there to bail out the protocol if a hack or a massive liquidation cascade happened. If we burn it, the Hyperliquidity Provider (HLP) pool becomes the only line of defense.

Right now: HLP has ~$390M. The Assistance Fund had ~$1B.

→ Remember the October 10th flash crash? The HLP pool was under massive stress. Removing the billion-dollar safety net means if sh*t hits the fan again, there is no backup plan.

My Take: A desperate move or 4D chess? 🤔

Hyperliquid is feeling the heat. Competitors like Aster, Lighter, and EdgeX are eating their lunch. Their volume and fee revenue have dropped significantly in the last 3 months.

This burn feels like a strategic move to stop the bleeding and regain narrative control.

• Short Term: Bullish. Supply goes down, "burn" narratives get clicks, price likely catches a bid into Christmas.

• Long Term: Burning tokens doesn't fix the product. If users keep migrating to Aster because the UX is better, no amount of burning will save the chart.

→ Keep an eye on the vote this weekend. If it passes (which it likely will), we might see a "Santa Rally" for $HYPE ( ▼ 8.95% ) . But be careful, without that insurance fund, the protocol risk just got a lot higher.

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🔥 BURNING HOT TAKES FOR THE ROAD

$AAVE ( ▼ 2.7% ) scores a massive regulatory win. The SEC officially dropped its years-long investigation into the DeFi giant. Read more

Binance declares war on corruption, offering a $5M bounty to expose fraudulent "listing agents" demanding bribes from token projects. Read more

Coinbase ($COIN ( ▼ 3.33% ) ) expands in Asia. India's competition regulator just cleared the exchange's acquisition of a stake in $COINDCX.P ( 0.0% ) . Read more

Bhutan just pledged 10,000 $BTC (approx. $1B) from its national reserves to fund its futuristic "Mindfulness City" project. Read more

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⚠ This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Traders should conduct thorough research, understand the risks, and carefully evaluate their decisions before investing in cryptocurrency.