🧨 Max Pain Friday for BTC & ETH

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According to Polymarket, ~78% believe the court will rule against Trump this week. If he loses the case, the U.S. may be forced to refund tariffs to American importers.

Trump could trigger an emergency tariff hike plan. The financial markets are on edge. Will this be the first true “Black Friday” of 2026? 🥶

Here’s what we got for you today:

• 👀 Are token buybacks actually "Bearish"?

• ⭐ It’s hard for BNB to crash deep in 2026

• ⭐ $2.2B in BTC & ETH options expire today

• 🔥 Burning hot takes for the road

📉 Are Token Buybacks Actually "Bearish"?

We all love buybacks because they feel like "value." But did you know that in the stock market, buybacks were essentially illegal until 1982? Today, it's the standard playbook for crypto.

Some even assume protocols are using buybacks to hide the fact that they've stopped growing. If you’re ready to spot the difference between "Value" and a "Trap", read this.

Eugene poured his heart into these reports. He researched for days. But he’s genuinely feeling down right now 😂 Because no one’s told him if this post even helped.

So… if you made it this far, kindly drop a short comment for him. Just a few words. Otherwise, he said “they killed me” and honestly, I’m a little worried 😶

🟡 WHY IT’S HARD FOR BNB TO CRASH DEEP IN 2026

BNB’s been one of the best-performing layer-1 altcoins over the past year even in shaky markets, and it’s not just hype.

Whether you’re holding $BNB ( ▲ 1.59% ) , thinking about buying, or just watching from the sidelines, here’s why this coin is tougher to break than most.

1/ Whale Liquidity Is Backing It Hard

One major reason is that BNB has strong whale participation and large average spot order sizes.

According to CryptoQuant, BNB’s spot average order size is consistently high. It means most BNB spot trades aren’t small bets, they’re big orders, often from whales or long-term holders.

That’s a big deal. Because when the market panics, those large players usually support the floor. BNB’s liquidity is thick where it matters.

Analysts from XWIN Research Japan noted: large orders = long-term holders and seasoned investors, not just retail gamblers

2/ Retail Isn’t Trading Much But They’re Still Building

You won’t see retail dominate spot volumes. But they’re all over BNB Chain.

• BNB Chain is #1 by weekly active addresses

• As of early 2026, it averaged 56.4M active users/week, beating:

  • NEAR: 38.6M

  • Solana: 37.2M

  • Ethereum: 11.2M

The upward trend (highlighted in green on Token Terminal) shows growing grassroots usage. And that helps BNB stay relevant and sticky, even if price dips short term.

3/ Institutions Are Quietly Moving In. Thanks to RWA

Another hidden strength you may not notice: RWA (Real World Assets) are heating up fast on BSC.

• TVL in RWA protocols on BSC has crossed $2.1B, per DeFiLlama

• Most of that is tokenized U.S. Treasuries from BlackRock, VanEck, Hashnote

• The growth really took off mid-2025 and hasn’t slowed since

These are real financial instruments, used by serious players. That kind of utility drives sustainable demand for the BNB token.

Binance is playing the long game here. They’re diversifying their user base: whales, retail, and institutions. They’ve positioned BNB as a backbone of DeFi, GameFi, and RWA

Many predicts BNB hitting $1,000 again soon.

👓 The Smartphone is Dead (It Just Doesn't Know It Yet)!?

We have reached Peak Screen. The next trillion-dollar opportunity is the technology that kills the phone entirely.

Here is Eugene’s analysis of the "Big Four" Strategies outlined in the post, and why Neuralink is the eventual endgame and "Glassholes" are about to make a massive comeback:

⚠️ $2.2B IN BTC & ETH OPTIONS EXPIRE TODAY

$BTC ( ▼ 0.87% ) and $ETH ( ▼ 1.2% ) are both under pressure right now. Where prices are stuck right now: near “max pain” levels:

• Bitcoin: ~90,985 USD (max pain = 90,000 USD)

• Ethereum: ~3,113 USD (max pain = 3,100 USD)

More than $2.2B in BTC and ETH options will expire on Deribit at 8:00 UTC. In total:

→ BTC options: $1.89B
→ ETH options: $396M
→ All set to expire at 8:00 UTC on Deribit

When prices sit near max pain like this, dealers hedge hard to manage their risk. That usually means low volatility, at least until expiry passes.

Options market is calm for now:

• BTC looks pretty balanced right now → put/call ratio is 1.05 (neutral vibes)

• ETH is a bit more bullish → put/call ratio is 0.87 (more calls than puts)

  → Lots of call positions sitting above $3,000

So if ETH holds above that level after expiry, market makers may have to buy, and that could fuel a move higher.

We might stay stuck a bit longer but a real trend could show up right after expiry. But there’s more. Macro is messy today too. Two big events are landing at the same time:

1. U.S. Jobs Report (NFP) drops at 8:30 AM ET

   • Expected: 73K new jobs, lower unemployment

   • But the real concern is the wage growth
     → If wages are still rising fast, the Fed stays hawkish = bad for BTC

2. Trump’s tariff case heads to the Supreme Court

   • Today’s ruling could limit Trump’s emergency tariff powers

   • That could shake up trade policy, and crypto tends to react hard to this stuff → Remember last year when BTC dropped to $74K on tariff drama before bouncing back?

And don't forget, the U.S. dollar is strong right now, which always adds pressure on Bitcoin and gold.

Most traders aren’t going full bear… but they are defensive, waiting for direction. Let’s see if this turns into Black Friday or just another fakeout.

🔥 BURNING HOT TAKES FOR THE ROAD

Trump just dropped $200B on the real estate market so buying a home becomes more affordable. Many call this “Trump’s own QE.” Read more

Zcash ($ZEC ( ▼ 10.15% ) ) bounces back after devs clarify: it's a restructuring, not an exit. Zcash protocol is still running smoothly. Read more

a16z Crypto confirmed a $15M token purchase in Babylon to support its trustless Bitcoin vault infra. $BABY ( ▼ 1.21% ) token jumps 9%. Read more

Wyoming launches the first U.S. state-issued stablecoin. $FRNT is live on Solana and tradable on Kraken. Read more

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⚠ This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Traders should conduct thorough research, understand the risks, and carefully evaluate their decisions before investing in cryptocurrency.