BTC Hits 90K But ... It's a Trap?

Despite the rebound, market structure still points toward a retest before any true upside momentum emerges.

Author

Eugene Le
November 27, 2025

⭐ BTC Hits 90K But

Bitcoin $BTC.X ( ▼ 0.57% ) is back above $90,000, and the total crypto market cap is well over $3T. Those are solid numbers to brag about at Thanksgiving dinner.

But once you look at how the market is actually behaving, the picture will not be that good, especially when you zoom into the chart patterns and the underlying market structure.

About two weeks ago, Bitcoin broke below its long-term trendline for the first time ever, and it didn’t bounce back immediately. It stayed below that structure for multiple days, which is a big shift in momentum.

Now BTC is climbing back up, but it’s pressing directly into the underside of that same trendline. Historically, when chart patterns break below a major trend, the first attempt to re-enter usually fails.

That’s the resistance Bitcoin is hitting right now.

The second problem is: markets always retest their initial lows. You saw this clearly in the March - April pullback. BTC bottomed, bounced, then retested the lows before moving higher.

Right now, the market looks like it’s setting up for the same pattern again. A mini-pump, followed by a retest, before any serious upward momentum. This fits perfectly with the current market structure, which still lacks a confirmed reversal.

So stay calm and watch how price reacts around the $91K - $94K zone.

Typically, BTC Dominance moves about one month ahead of Bitcoin’s actual price. A rising BTC Dominance is usually the first signal that the market structure is gearing up to climb.

But it hasn’t reached the level the market usually needs before a real trend continuation. Historically, that threshold is around 60%, and we aren’t there yet.

Until then, this is a bounce, not a breakout, and BTC will likely keep moving around the $90K - $95K range for a while, forming short-term chart patterns but not yet shifting the bigger market structure.

You remember our prediction that Bitcoin would return to the $80K when the entire market believed BTC would hold $100K and continue moving up.

And we’ve shared high-potential tokens that are positioned for 200% growth in one month, while the broader market looks quiet and sluggish.

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🧱 Trendline Rejection, Retest Incoming, Dominance Reset

Bitcoin is also moving almost perfectly in sync with rate-cut expectations, which aligns closely with current chart patterns on the macro side.

Rate-cut odds have been swinging wildly. In late October, they sat at 90%. Then they collapsed below 22%. Now they’ve spiked back near 87%.

Just about a month ago, Jerome was still saying that “rate cuts not a forgone conclusion, far from it,” and both BTC and the S&P 500 $SPX ( ▲ 0.54% ) reacted instantly, dropping hard with Bitcoin sliding all the way from $110K down to $80K - a sharp breakdown fully visible in the chart patterns and confirmed by weak market structure.

But everything flipped the moment Fed President John Williams said he sees “room to cut rates again in the near-term.” That single comment sent rate-cut odds soaring, and Bitcoin responded immediately, ripping back toward $90K.

Rate-cut odds have become the most important macro metric in the entire market. If they rise, crypto breathes. If they drop, crypto dumps. This relationship is now clearly reflected in BTC’s chart patterns.

It’s that simple.

And with the next FOMC meeting just 13 days away, there’s still room for another sharp move in either direction. If rate-cut odds fall again, Bitcoin could easily follow the same path because the market structure remains reactive, not bullish.

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⚡ Key Takeaway

  • Bitcoin hitting $90K looks exciting, but the chart patterns tell a different story. BTC is still sitting under its long-term trendline, and the market structure hasn’t confirmed any real breakout.

  • A retest of recent lows remains likely. The March - April playbook continues to repeat itself, and current chart patterns point to a bounce followed by a retest before any sustained move higher.

  • Watch the $91K - $94K reaction zone closely. This area will reveal whether BTC can rebuild market structure or if this mini-pump fades like previous failed attempts.

  • BTC Dominance is rising but still below the critical 60% threshold. Dominance usually leads BTC’s price by about a month, and until it climbs higher, chart patterns will continue showing hesitation.

  • Rate-cut odds are driving the majority of Bitcoin’s volatility. BTC has moved almost tick-for-tick with changes in rate-cut expectations, and this macro correlation is now embedded in both chart patterns and market structure.

  • The next FOMC meeting may trigger another sharp move. If rate-cut odds fall again, Bitcoin could easily revisit lower levels before any chance of a true breakout forms.

⚠ This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Traders should conduct thorough research, understand the risks, and carefully evaluate their decisions before investing in cryptocurrency.

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