📈 Grayscale’s Back with a $BTC Banger

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Not just BTC, ETH has had 8 red months this year. Historically, there’s only one other year where ETH had more red months than green ones.

But sometimes, it’s just funds or individuals reducing risk or freeing up cash. Which likely means most of the panic sellers are already out of the market.

So right now, ETH is probably being traded by people who aren’t being forced to sell. And that is bullish.

👀 What do you think about this theory?

Here’s what we got for you today:

• 👀 Macro environment reset: jobs, inflation,…

• ⭐ Why you might have less $$$ for crypto in 2026

• ⭐ Grayscale predicts new BTC ATHs by mid-2026

• 🔥 Burning hot takes for the road

Real macro data is finally back. If you care about crypto, equities, or the future of capital markets, this is one update you won’t want to skip. In this breakdown, you’ll see:

• Why delayed U.S. data could reset the market’s outlook in one go

• What the Bank of Japan’s expected rate hike means for global liquidity

And more…

💰 WHY YOU MIGHT HAVE LESS MONEY FOR CRYPTO IN 2026

According to new U.S. labor data, a lot of Americans might have less spare cash to invest next year.

And yeah, that could have a big impact on how crypto performs, especially in the early part of 2026. So what’s going on?

• The job market’s still adding new positions, but unemployment just ticked up

• Wage growth is slowing down, which means people aren’t seeing their paychecks grow as fast

• When money’s tight, people usually cut back on the “fun” stuff first, like speculative investments

That’s bad news for retail-driven markets like crypto. Y’all typically don’t borrow to buy crypto right? You just use leftover income, that "fun money" after rent, bills, and groceries.

→ When that “extra” money slows down, so does crypto demand. But…

1/ Altcoins are at higher risk than Bitcoin. Not all coins are affected equally. Cause altcoins rely heavily on retail traders.

BTC’s a little safer here. It gets more support from institutions, ETFs, and long-term holders. So while it’s not bulletproof, it’s less sensitive to retail sell pressure.

2/ Lower income doesn’t always mean lower prices…

Prices can still rise, even when household income weakens if the Fed starts cutting rates.

If the job market cools more, that can push asset prices up but it’s not coming from retail buying, it’s coming from macro flow.

Still, Grayscale and others have said it, these liquidity-driven rallies are more fragile, and they turn fast if macro winds shift.

3/ Institutions are feeling it too, especially with Japan in play

The Bank of Japan might raise interest rates which sounds small, but it could flip the yen carry trade (like we analyzed yesterday).

For years, institutions have borrowed cheap yen and pumped that money into risky assets around the world.

So yeah, it's not just you and me, the big guys are watching their exposure too.

I don’t think we’re about to see a massive crash or anything dramatic. But I do think 2026 could be different.

We’re moving out of the hype-driven rallies; that’s not a bad thing. In fact, it might actually be healthier long-term.

If you’re holding altcoins, take some time to analyze each one again. Look for strong liquidity, real use cases, and projects that can survive without relying on retail waves.

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🚀 GRAYSCALE: NEW BTC ATH BY MID-2026

These days, it’s common to see well-known traders, CEOs, or fund founders share their BTC predictions for 2026, especially as we’re approaching the end of 2025.

Today, we’ll take a closer look at Grayscale’s forecast - one of the few institutions we trust and follow, given their solid track record with past predictions.

Basically, they said $BTC ( ▲ 0.24% ) will hit a new all-time high (ATH) in the first half of 2026. It’s straight from their new report “2026 Digital Asset Outlook: Dawn of the Institutional Era.”

Let me walk you through what they’re seeing 👇

1/ Macro Backdrop is Doing a Lot of the Heavy Lifting

Grayscale says we’re entering a new phase where demand for crypto, especially Bitcoin, is finally strong enough to push us into real growth territory.

• People are losing trust in fiat currencies. Inflation’s still hanging around

• Bitcoin and Ethereum start looking pretty attractive as store-of-value alternatives

• In March 2026, the 20 millionth BTC will be mined

→ This is a reminder that Bitcoin’s supply is fixed, transparent, and getting scarcer.

They believe we’re done with the whole ‘4-year cycle’ theory. No more halving-driven rinse-and-repeat.

2/ Clearer Regulation = Less Fear, More Capital

Grayscale’s second key point is all about regulatory clarity finally arriving (especially in the U.S.), and how it’s unlocking institutional money.

Here’s what changed recently:

• In recent years, a bunch of high-profile crypto lawsuits got dismissed

• In 2024, spot Bitcoin and $ETH ( ▼ 0.96% ) ETFs were approved

• In 2025, congress passed the GENIUS Act for stablecoins

All of this is making institutions feel a lot safer joining in.

And for long-term, it opens the door to tokenizing stocks, bonds, and other real-world assets on blockchain.

3/ Institutional Flows Are Now the Main Growth Engine

Grayscale says most of the new money coming into crypto is through ETFs and ETPs. And since Jan 2024, global crypto ETPs have already pulled in $87 billion.

But even now, less than 0.5% of U.S. professionally managed money is allocated to crypto. So we’re still very early.

This cycle’s top annual gain is around 240%, not 1,000%+. The volatility is calmer, because institutions are just buying quietly, regularly.

This shift might actually help avoid those scary, long crypto crashes we’ve seen in the past.

5/ But Short-Term Volatility is Still Real

Even with all this bullish talk, Bitcoin’s still down in the last 24 hours, sitting around $86K.

Just a reminder that the long-term thesis can look great while the short-term still messes with your emotions.

Grayscale’s showing how real money is entering slowly, structurally, and without the drama. It’s not, uh, sexy… but it’s powerful.

I'm not saying it’ll be a straight line up. But if Grayscale’s right, and I think they might be, you won’t want to be on the sidelines when it happens.

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🔥 BURNING HOT TAKES FOR THE ROAD

PancakeSwap launched Probable, a new prediction market on BNB Chain. It offers fee-free betting, auto-swaps to $USDT ( ▲ 0.01% ) . Read more

Kevin Hassett, Trump's top pick for Fed Chair, insists Trump's voice has “no weight" in rate decisions, at all. Read more

Seems like we have so many stablecoins, Exodus partnered with MoonPay to launch a USD-pegged stablecoin in Jan 2026. Read more

Hyperliquid validators are being urged to vote on a proposal to burn 37.1M $HYPE ( ▼ 2.29% ) . Is this the catalyst? Read more

Why do your stop losses always get hit? The White Whale, a trader with $3M in profit on MEXC, just broke it down. See the post

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⚠ This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Traders should conduct thorough research, understand the risks, and carefully evaluate their decisions before investing in cryptocurrency.