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Macro Environment Reset: Jobs, Inflation, Bank of Japan
With U.S. data back on the calendar and the BOJ in focus, this week’s macro environment sets the tone for risk assets
Eugene Le
December 16, 2025
TL;DR BOX
This week’s macro environment is shaped by a wave of delayed U.S. economic data and a key Bank of Japan rate decision, while Bitcoin shows clear short-term technical weakness. With jobs, inflation, and consumption data all landing at once, macro signals now matter more than narratives for both crypto and broader risk assets.
The return of U.S. economic data clarifies trends in growth, inflation, and labor, directly influencing rate-cut expectations. At the same time, a likely 0.25 percent BOJ hike increases the risk of Yen-funded trades unwinding, which can pressure crypto even if partly priced in. On the chart, Bitcoin has broken down from a descending triangle, and weak fund inflows suggest upside momentum remains limited until macro conditions and flows improve.
Key points
Fact: Markets expect a 0.25% BOJ rate hike this week.
Mistake: Ignoring macro data and focusing only on price action.
Action: Trade smaller and wait for confirmation, not headlines.
Critical insight
AI growth is now gated by grids and permits, not innovation speed.
Table of Contents
⛏️ What should we pay attention to in the coming period?
1, Macro Events Shaping the Macro Environment
All the economic data delayed by the U.S. government shutdown is finally back, reshaping the current macro environment.
And this week is stacked with macro releases, giving markets a long-overdue reset on where the economy actually stands.
Tuesday:
October Retail Sales – key piece of economic data measuring consumer spending strength as Q4 begins.
November Jobs Report – Tracks changes in unemployment; a clear rise would increase rate-cut expectations and typically support crypto and risk assets.
Thursday: November CPI Inflation – A narrow snapshot of inflation trends and short-term price pressures.
Friday:
October PCE Inflation – The Fed’s preferred inflation metric, offering a broader view of price stability.
November Existing Home Sales – A read on the health of the U.S. housing market under high interest rates.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment – A pulse check on consumer confidence and economic expectations.
Bank of Japan Rate Decision – Markets expect a 0.25% hike, which could weigh on crypto and risk assets if Yen-funded positions unwind.
For years, investors have borrowed cheap Yen to fund positions in U.S. stocks and crypto, a strategy that has been heavily influenced by the global macro environment.
Higher Japanese rates make that trade more expensive, forcing some investors to unwind positions and repay Yen-denominated loans.
The key nuance is timing.
This BOJ hike has been anticipated since early in the month. If it happens as expected, much of the impact may already be priced in, limiting downside unless the BOJ surprises the market.
2, Chart
Bitcoin $BTC ( ▲ 0.12% ) has officially broken down from a descending triangle pattern, with confirmation coming from a large bearish candle closing below the ascending support line, a move that aligns with recent economic data pointing to tighter financial conditions.
This breakdown signals that buying pressure is no longer strong enough to push price higher, and sellers have taken control in the short term.
At the same time, fund inflows remain weak and fragmented, with no clear surge in institutional demand.
Without a meaningful pickup in capital entering the market, it is difficult to argue for a fast or aggressive upside move in BTC from here, especially while key economic data remains mixed.
Overall, price structure and flow data both suggest that Bitcoin may need more time to build support before any sustainable recovery can begin.
🚀 SpaceX IPO
Elon Musk’s net worth surged past $600B largely due to reports that SpaceX is preparing for an IPO next year at an estimated $800B valuation.
Musk owns roughly 42% of SpaceX, meaning a public listing at that level would significantly crystallize his private-company wealth and mark one of the largest IPOs in history.
At an $800B valuation, SpaceX alone could add about $168B to Musk’s net worth, underscoring how central the company has become to his financial standing.
A SpaceX IPO would not only reshape Musk’s wealth profile but also signal a major milestone for the commercial space industry, bringing one of the world’s most valuable private firms into public markets.
You remember our prediction that Bitcoin would return to $80K when the entire market believed BTC would hold $100K and continue moving up.
And we’ve shared high-potential tokens that are positioned for 200% growth in one month, while the broader market looks quiet and sluggish.
This series will be updated more frequently in the PRO edition moving forward.
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🏗️ Bitcoin ACT
There’s been a lot more discussion around The Bitcoin Act lately, partly driven by shifting economic data and long-term fiscal concerns, so let’s break it down in plain English.
What is The Bitcoin Act?
The Bitcoin Act proposes that the U.S. government gradually buys Bitcoin and holds it long term.
Once the Bitcoin is purchased, the government would be required to hold it for at least 20 years, meaning it cannot be sold quickly or used for short-term political goals.
How would it work?
Right now, the proposed funding ideas include three main options:
First, repricing U.S. gold reserves. Many U.S. gold certificates are still valued at 1970s prices, around $42 per ounce. If they were updated to today’s market price of roughly $4,300 per ounce, this could unlock over $1 trillion in potential funding.
Second, using surplus funds from the Federal Reserve. Think of this as tapping into the Fed’s savings rather than raising new taxes.
Third, using part of the Fed’s earnings. The Federal Reserve earns interest from the government bonds it holds, and a portion of that income could be redirected toward Bitcoin purchases.
What needs to happen for it to pass?
For The Bitcoin Act to become law, it must clear several major hurdles.
It would need approval from the Senate Banking Committee → the full Senate → the House Financial Services Committee, and finally the President.
That’s a long and difficult process, with plenty of opportunities for it to stall.
Best-case outcome if it passes
For investors, the upside could be significant.
Imagine the government buys 1 million Bitcoin over five years at an average price of $100,000 per BTC. That’s a total investment of $100 billion. If that sustained buying pressure and reduced supply helps push Bitcoin to $1 million over the next 20 years, investors would see massive gains.
However, for the U.S. government, the impact is less dramatic.
Even if that $100 billion investment grows into $1 trillion, it would only cover about one year of current U.S. interest payments. And even in an extreme scenario where Bitcoin increases 100x, it would still only cover roughly 10 years of interest costs at today’s levels.
Because of this, convincing Congress that The Bitcoin Act could meaningfully solve the U.S. debt problem may be a tough sell.
Still, if it ever does pass, it would be a major symbolic and structural win for Bitcoin adoption, tightly aligned with long-term changes in the macro environment and evolving economic data signals.
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⚠ This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Traders should conduct thorough research, understand the risks, and carefully evaluate their decisions before investing in cryptocurrency.
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