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Oil prices are surging as we kick off the week! Brent crude jumped over 3% to cross the $90 per barrel mark, while $WTI ( ▲ 0.57% ) climbed to around $85. As markets are reacting to the new wave of US airstrikes on Iran over the weekend. 🛢️
Despite the geopolitical heat, the crypto market is holding its ground today. $BTC ( ▲ 0.75% ) is trading relatively flat, hovering right around the $63,800 level. Crypto seems to be taking a calm "wait and see" approach. 🧘♂️
Here’s what we got for you today:
👀 Moonshot hunting guide (Part 3)
⭐ $90 oil as war pressures Bitcoin
⭐ WC: Kalshi gains 3M new users
🔥 Burning hot takes for the road
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🛢️ OIL BREAKS $90 AS US-IRAN WAR ESCALATES: WHAT IT MEANS FOR BTC
Oil just broke back above $90, and the ripple effects are hitting every corner of the financial markets. Brent crude jumped over 3% to $91.40, capping off a 14% gain last week and a nearly 30% recovery from its early July low of $71.
1/ Hormuz Squeeze: War Restarts 🚢
The main reason oil is climbing so fast is that conflict in the Middle East is disrupting supply. President Trump officially ended the June 17 ceasefire on July 8.
The US military launched strikes on Iran for 8 consecutive nights over the weekend and set up a blockade on Iranian ports. Tehran responded by stating the Strait of Hormuz is now closed to any ship without explicit permission.
Kuwait reported that Iranian strikes hit its power and water facilities twice in 2 days.
2/ Are Rate Hikes Back on the Table? 📈
Falling energy prices helped US consumer prices drop 0.4% in June, giving the market hope that inflation was beaten. $90+ oil reverses that progress overnight.
The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.55%, near its highest point in 2 months. Metals like silver also took a big hit.
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh kept rates unchanged in June, stating: "Prices are still too high."
Half of the Fed officials (9 out of 18) are now forecasting at least one rate hike before the end of the year.
CME FedWatch data shows traders are pricing in higher chances of a rate hike at the upcoming July 28–29 Fed meeting. Over in Europe, analysts expect the ECB might also raise rates in September.
3/ What This Means for Bitcoin & Crypto 📉
Higher interest rates are bad news for risk-on assets like crypto because they make holding cash or buying government bonds yield more for zero risk.
Bitcoin is struggling to build upward momentum, getting sold off quickly every time it tries to bounce.
Data from the earlier phase of the war (Feb 28 to June 17) showed that traditional stocks actually performed better than BTC as a safe haven asset.
If oil stays above $90 through the end of the month, a Fed rate hike goes from a small threat to the main market driver.
Right now, big investors are treating Bitcoin as a high-risk asset. Until energy prices stabilize or the Fed gives a clear sign that rate hikes are off the table, any crypto pumps will face heavy selling pressure.
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⚽ KALSHI GAINS 3M USERS AS SPAIN’S WORLD CUP WIN CRUSHES DRAKE’S $5M BET
The 2026 FIFA World Cup just ended with a massive 1-0 extra-time win for Spain over Argentina, and while Messi’s last World Cup ended in heartbreak, prediction markets just had their biggest payday in history.
Kalshi was one of the biggest winners of the tournament, pulling in millions of new traders and hitting record-breaking trade numbers.
1/ $1.2 Billion Record & The Final Drama 🏆
The World Cup winner market on Kalshi set a brand new record as the single largest market in the platform's history.
Over $1.2 billion was traded on the World Cup winner market alone.
Kalshi told CNBC that they added 3 million new users during the tournament as global soccer fever took over.
On Sunday, Ferran Torres scored in the 106th minute to give Spain a 1-0 win over Argentina. Kalshi had Spain's win chance at 58% on Sunday morning.
2/ Marketing Playbook: ChatGPT, Mourinho, & Stadium Ads ⚽
Kalshi went all-in on aggressive marketing to capture soccer fans worldwide:
They teamed up with ADI Predictstreet (FIFA's official prediction market sponsor) for co-branded ads inside stadiums during games.
Kalshi worked with OpenAI to show live betting odds directly inside ChatGPT search results when people looked up matches.
They ran ad campaigns featuring football legends like Luka Modric and Jose Mourinho, while also partnering directly with the Argentina national team.
CEO Tarek Mansour explained that speed is their top priority, stating: "Our trading volume always follows hot news stories."
3/ $11M Losses, Drake's Curse, & Legal Fights ⚖️
Huge money was lost on the pitch, and regulators are watching very closely.
Rapper Drake placed a massive $1.5M to $5M bet on Argentina to win the final, losing it all when Spain scored in extra time. Over on Polymarket, one single trader lost a staggering $11.6 million betting on earlier World Cup matches in July.
Sports contracts are trapped in a heated legal battle between US federal regulators and individual states. States argue these contracts are just illegal sports gambling, leading to court battles like the CFTC's lawsuit in Kentucky.
Brian Sung, a partner at law firm Haynes Boone, pointed out that aggressive marketing won't sway judges in court, but it definitely changes how the public and regulators view prediction markets.
4/ The "Post-Game" Hangover Problem 📉
Now that the World Cup trophy has been lifted, Kalshi faces a very familiar problem. Trading volume usually plummets on days with no games or major events.
CEO Tarek Mansour admitted that keeping growth alive after a massive global event is tough, but he's actively looking for new real-world catalysts to keep traders engaged.
🔥 BURNING HOT TAKES FOR THE ROAD
Despite passing the GENIUS Act stablecoin framework last year, US regulators failed to finalize the rules in time. Read more
Robinhood Chain launchpad Noxa shut down after collecting $12M in fees, crashing its ecosystem tokens by 30%. Read more
Morgan Stanley just rolled out spot Bitcoin, $ETH ( ▲ 1.93% ), and $SOL ( ▲ 1.54% ) trading directly on E*TRADE with digital assets. Read more
Another $900M is hitting FTX creditors' wallets! This 5th payout brings total recoveries near $10B, with some users receiving up to 120%. Read more
French regulators just ordered local internet service providers to block Polymarket over gambling laws. Read more
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