Is AI Valuation Overrated?

Let’s take a small pause from the crypto chaos.

I know you’re stressed because you sold too early, expecting a downtrend, only for Bitcoin $BTC.X ( ▲ 1.42% ) to rocket back up after tapping 80k. If you want to understand why that happened and what comes next, just wait for my next post.

But today? It’s all about AI.

1. Are We Entering the Real AI Supercycle Right Now?

Honestly, it should be about AI.

Because whether you like it or not, crypto and AI are the two biggest secular trend waves of our lifetime. They are structural transformations changing how the world runs. And AI sits right in the middle of this shift. This is why AI valuation is becoming one of the most important debates in the market right now.

Some people call this an AI bubble!

But bubbles don’t come with 800 million weekly active users.

ChatGPT is now used by more than 10% of the adult planet.

We’re not talking about simple chatbots. We’re talking AI stepping into senior-level professional work: coding, analysis, research, trading, design, even decision-making.

And the next stage?

Physical robotics powered by models from players.

Humanoids, autonomous machines, factory robots that can think - This is the real secular trend.

The Nasdaq is the clearest mirror of companies that embrace new technology, and its long rise shows exactly what a real secular trend looks like. AI is now becoming a core part of that same long-term shift, not because of hype, but because the biggest tech giants are pouring money into it at an unprecedented pace.

This is where AI valuation gets harder but more important.

AI and crypto are the two generational plays you can’t afford to misunderstand. Ignore the noise, form your own conviction, and decide whether you want to be part of this or not. As for us, we’re all in, especially as AI and blockchains begin to converge.

Let’s get into it.

Before you read on, I hope you can give me a quick vote so I know whether I should keep improving and bring you even better content:

2. Who’s Actually Paying for AI?

People aren’t just using AI. They’re paying for it.

Let’s start with OpenAI.

In December 2024, OpenAI pulled in around $5.5 billion in annual revenue.
By June 2025, the run rate blasted past $10 billion, and they’re pacing comfortably toward $12.7 billion in 2025.

That’s a business. And it forces a new conversation about AI valuation at this scale.

The chart makes a huge claim that OpenAI could hit $100 billion in revenue within just three years. If that happens, the entire AI valuation framework we use today gets rewritten

For context, Meta was the fastest ever to reach that milestone, and it still took them seven years to go from $10B to $100B.

So can OpenAI pull off a 10x that fast?

It’s ambitious, but far from impossible. Especially with rumors building that the company is gearing up for a $1 trillion IPO.

Remember, Apple $AAPL ( ▲ 1.63% ) became the first $1T company only seven years ago. Now a private company might debut at the same valuation. That tells you how real this AI boom is.

And honestly, AI already has a working business model, people are paying for it, and monetization is accelerating, not slowing down.

If OpenAI keeps scaling the way it is now and remains the leader in model performance, a trillion-dollar valuation might not be as crazy as it sounds.

But revenue is only one part of the story.

When you factor in training costs, inference costs, and massive capital expenses, the reality is that OpenAI is probably still running at a loss. Suddenly, that $1T number feels a lot different.

So who’s actually paying for this entire AI boom?

We both know about Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta. They’re pumping billions into compute because they see the long-term strategic payoff. They want early user lock-in, stronger ecosystems, and the data advantage that compounds over time. Whoever controls the compute stack controls the “picks and shovels” of the AI economy.

These giants are already generating massive profits and sitting on piles of cash, so spending 50 - 60% of their free cash flow on infrastructure isn’t a problem.

This is why they’re all-in on AI and why the idea of an AI “bubble” becomes harder to defend. In fact, the better question now is: would you bet on any company that isn’t investing heavily in AI?

⚡ Key Takeaway

• AI is no longer optional: It’s one of the strongest secular trends of our lifetime, sitting right beside crypto, and the insane growth of stability ai and ChatGPT’s 800M weekly users proves adoption is only accelerating. This is why AI valuation keeps climbing.

• This isn’t an AI bubble: Bubbles don’t generate billions in real revenue, and they don’t have 10% of the adult world using them weekly. The numbers show AI demand is real, sticky, and growing fast.

• OpenAI’s growth curve is unprecedented: Jumping from $5.5B to a $10B+ run rate in six months signals a business model with extreme monetization power, making a $1T IPO possible sooner than people expect.

• AI is still expensive to run: Even with record revenue, the cost of training, inference, and compute means OpenAI is likely still unprofitable, showing just how massive the capital requirements are behind the scenes.

• Hyperscalers are funding the revolution: Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta are burning billions on AI infrastructure not for short-term profit, but to own the platforms the entire AI ecosystem will depend on.

• Compute is the new oil: Whoever controls GPUs, data centers, and power controls the real “picks and shovels” of the AI economy. Big Tech spending 50 - 60% of free cash flow on Capex is the clearest signal of real AI valuation conviction at scale.

• If a company isn’t investing in AI, it’s falling behind: At this point, the bigger risk isn’t betting on AI. It’s betting on companies that ignore the biggest technological shift in decades.

⚠ This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Traders should conduct thorough research, understand the risks, and carefully evaluate their decisions before investing in cryptocurrency.

If you’re interested in other topics and want to stay ahead of how Crypto are reshaping the markets, from whale strategies to the next major altcoin narrative, you can explore more of our deep-dive articles here:

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