BTC Slides Below 100k as Macro Environment Turns Risk-Off

The macro environment has been the main driver behind every crypto drop you and I have seen this month.

And when I say macro environment, I mean the full mix: Rates, inflation, labor data, liquidity, Government operations. All of it hit at the same time. And that’s why the market reacted so violently.

Bitcoin $BTC.X ( ▼ 4.86% ) broke below $100,000 for the first time in more than 188 days. It looks shocking, and I know most people felt that drop immediately. But to be honest, I wasn’t surprised.

I already pointed out this setup in my technical analysis from the Liquidity Concept Explanation article. Don’t FOMO!

You need to keep calm.

Let’s walk through what happened!

🎈 Macro environment shock.

When the government shut down, all the important reports stopped such as CPI, PPI, jobs data. None of it came out.

That forced everyone to trade without knowing where inflation or growth was heading. And when the macro environment turns unclear like that, it is fair to cut risk fast.

Because of this, the Fed had almost no new data to work with, so people assumed they wouldn’t have a solid basis to adjust interest rates. That pushed the Fed into a more cautious, almost hawkish stance. Rate-cut expectations fell, and the market began pricing in the idea that higher rates might stick around longer than expected.

Expensive money always hurts risky assets, especially BTC $BTC.X ( ▼ 4.86% ) , ETH $ETH ( ▼ 7.42% ) , etc.

Stocks added more weight when Tesla $TSLA ( ▼ 6.64% ) and Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 0.19% ) fell sharply. Big tech also drops, it tells investors that the macro environment is getting weaker.

Funds pull back across the board and reduce exposure everywhere.

With liquidity already thin, BTC had nothing to fall back on. Sellers stepped in, buyers backed away, and the crypto drop got sharper with every move.

This wasn’t some problem inside crypto.

It was just the macro environment tightening at the worst possible time, and BTC took the hit first.

💸 Government reopening

Even though the macro environment still looks rough, the reality is the US government is getting ready to reopen. After Trump signed the budget bill on October 13 and officially ended the shutdown, things finally started moving.

This played out exactly the way I predicted in my earlier breakdown. The moment the government comes back online, data flow returns, spending resumes, and the market stops guessing and starts reacting to real numbers instead of fear.

Besides, the TGA opening back up is a big deal. There’s about one trillion dollars sitting in that account, and all of it was basically stuck during the shutdown.

Now that the government can spend again, that money will soon flow back into the system. This kind of liquidity always matters because people will have money to spend again, which boosts consumption and keeps the economy moving.

That kind of demand always helps the market regain momentum, and it gives assets like BTC a clearer path to push back up.

Rate expectations can shift again now that real data is coming back. Before the shutdown, everyone was confident about cuts. Then the Fed had to work with old numbers, and the outlook flipped.

With updated inflation and labor reports on the way, the Fed can reassess its stance. If the data shows cooling pressure, cheaper money becomes more likely, and that usually gives BTC some space to recover.

⚡ The liquidation cascade

The sharp BTC drop you saw did not happen only because liquidity was thin or because traders were overleveraged. A deeper layer came from the macro environment shifting again after a wave of hawkish comments from the Fed.

With key reports like CPI and PPI delayed, the Fed had to rely on old data, and officials shifted into a tougher tone. Rate-cut expectations fell fast, and that pushed risk assets into defensive mode. When the macro environment tightens like that, Bitcoin is always the first to react.

Once BTC slipped below major levels, the sell-off escalated. More than 750 million dollars in positions were liquidated within hours. The break below $100,000 turned the dip into a full cascade, dragging ETH and altcoins down and erasing over $110 billion dollars in total market cap.

But even with all the short-term pressure, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin hasn’t really changed. Big institutions aren’t backing away. JPMorgan is still holding its $170,000 target for the next cycle, arguing that capital flows will improve once the macro environment stabilizes. They also point to the $94,000 zone as a meaningful support tied to rising production costs after the halving, something that usually marks a fundamental floor for BTC.

On top of that, people who focus on multi-year cycles remain confident.

Michael Saylor has been very clear about his stance, saying Bitcoin could surpass gold’s market cap before 2035. And he’s not alone.

Many long-term observers see this drop as a temporary shakeout caused by leverage and missing data, not a shift in Bitcoin’s underlying demand.

So even though the recent crypto drop feels heavy, the foundation behind BTC hasn’t weakened. This move came from a sudden macro hit and a wave of forced liquidations, not a change in long-term beliefs.

Once the market absorbs the shock and liquidity returns, BTC tends to recover faster than most expect, may target $240,000.

LOL

⚡ Key Takeaway

• The macro environment was the real trigger behind the crypto drop: When CPI, PPI, and jobs data were delayed, the market had no visibility on inflation or growth. That uncertainty forced investors to cut risk fast and pushed BTC down before anything else.

• The Fed’s hawkish tone made the correction sharper: Because the Fed had to rely on old data, rate-cut expectations fell quickly. Higher-for-longer rates always hit liquidity, and BTC reacts to that pressure sooner than stocks.

• The government reopening is a turning point for market stability.
  With the shutdown over, economic data returns, federal spending resumes, and the market shifts from guessing to adjusting based on real numbers again. That alone can calm volatility.

• The TGA reopening brings fresh liquidity back into the system: Nearly one trillion dollars was stuck during the shutdown. As that money flows again, consumption improves, liquidity rises, and BTC gains a clearer path to recover after the crypto drop.

• The BTC crash was amplified by a liquidation cascade: Once BTC broke below key levels, more than $750M in longs were wiped out in hours. This wasn’t panic selling but forced selling that dragged ETH and altcoins down with it.

• Long-term conviction behind Bitcoin remains strong: Institutions like JPMorgan still hold targets above $170K, and long-term bulls like Michael Saylor see BTC overtaking gold by 2035. None of the fundamentals changed during this drop.

• BTC often rebounds quickly after forced liquidations: When leverage is flushed out and fresh liquidity returns, Bitcoin tends to recover faster than traders expect. A move toward $240,000 is still in the cards if macro conditions cooperate.

If you’re interested in other topics and want to stay ahead of how Crypto are reshaping the markets, from whale strategies to the next major altcoin narrative, you can explore more of our deep-dive articles here:

• Macro Environment: The AI Race is Hotter*

• The Crypto Sell-Off and Get Ready for the Old Coins

• Latest Crypto News: Bitcoin Reawakens, TAO Halving Hype Builds

• AI in Trading: How ChatGPT Atlas Could Redefine Trading Strategy*

• Zcash Pumps 30%, and Bitcoin Prepares for a Breakout

*indicates premium insights available to Pro readers only.