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- Where Are We in the Crypto Cycle!?️ Market Top In 2026 All Investors Must Know
Where Are We in the Crypto Cycle!?️ Market Top In 2026 All Investors Must Know
Key indicators suggest bitcoin is still mid-cycle, with the market top likely ahead rather than already behind us.
Eugene Le
January 05, 2026
TL;DR BOX
Bitcoin is not at the end of the crypto cycle yet. Multiple indicators suggest the market is still in an early-to-mid phase, with the market top more likely ahead than already behind us. Tools like the MVRV Z-Score, global M2 growth, and the Pi Cycle Top show price moving higher without signs of extreme euphoria, while valuations remain well below historical market top levels seen in prior cycles.
At the same time, global liquidity is improving, macro conditions remain supportive, and investor sentiment is still cautious. This mix has historically appeared before stronger upside phases rather than at cycle peaks. The absence of classic market top signals matters for 2026 positioning, as it suggests the current move is part of a broader expansion, not the final stage of the cycle.
Key points
Fact: MVRV Z-Score is around 1–2, far below historical market top levels of 7–9.
Mistake: Assuming every cycle will peak at the same time or price as past cycles.
Action: Use multiple indicators to manage risk, not price targets alone.
Critical insight
Cycle tops form during euphoria, not during fear and sideways price action.
Table of Contents
Hello everyone! Wishing you a happy and successful New Year.
And you just wonder how this 2026 could be successful?
Let’s look at our crypto cycle indicators to see where they suggest we are in the market:
🥇 Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score
The MVRV Z-Score chart suggests that Bitcoin $BTC ( ▼ 3.23% ) is not at the end of its cycle yet. In past crypto cycles, major market tops only formed when the Z-Score surged deep into the red zone (around 7 - 9) and stayed there, signaling extreme euphoria and overvaluation.
At the moment, the indicator is hovering around the 1 - 2 range, still far below historical peak levels.
This implies that price is not overheated.
Based on the MVRV Z-Score alone, there appears to be meaningful upside remaining, with cycle risk still relatively contained.
⛏️ Bitcoin and M2 Growth Global of YoY
Historically, periods of accelerating M2 expansion (the green areas) have been followed by sustained bitcoin uptrends, often with a noticeable lag.
Conversely, when global M2 growth slowed sharply or turned negative as seen in 2022, bitcoin entered a bear market and formed its crypto cycle lows.
This reinforces the idea that global liquidity is a primary driver of bitcoin’s long-term crypto cycles.
In the most recent period, global M2 growth has clearly turned back up after bottoming in 2022 - 2023, but it has not yet reached the explosive levels of 2020–2021. Bitcoin has responded positively, though the advance remains orderly rather than parabolic.
If M2 continues to expand through 2026, the probability of a stronger upside phase for bitcoin increases, while cycle risk remains relatively contained.
🧨 Pi Cycle Top Indicator
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator has historically been very effective at identifying major bitcoin market tops, which occur when the short-term moving average (111DMA) crosses above the long-term trend line (350DMA × 2).
In past crypto cycles - 2013, 2017, and 2021 - these crossovers aligned closely with market peaks and were followed by extended bear markets. On the current chart, no such crossover has occurred, indicating that bitcoin has not entered a historical market top zone.
Looking at the recent period, price continues to trend upward while the two moving averages remain clearly separated. This suggests the market is still in a healthy bull-phase structure, not an overheated end-stage.
You remember our prediction that Bitcoin would return to $80K when the entire market believed BTC would hold $100K and continue moving up.
And we’ve shared high-potential tokens that are positioned for 200% growth in one month, while the broader market looks quiet and sluggish.
This series will be updated more frequently in the PRO edition moving forward.
Monthly Plan: Was $29/mo → Now $3.99/mo
Annual Plan: Was $199/yr → Now $29/year 🤯
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🔥 The CryptoFire View
2025 was a tough year for crypto investors, but it came with important lessons that markets don’t follow fixed rules, and past crypto cycles can’t be blindly applied to the present.
Now, as we enter a new year, the crypto market looks positioned for a rebound, supported by the setup and indicators discussed above.
The economy appears to be in the early-to-mid expansion phase, having already moved past the trough of the previous slowdown. Inflation continues to fall, with Truflation now below 2%, while growth remains resilient.
This creates a classic Goldilocks setup: not hot enough to force aggressive tightening, and not weak enough to tip into recession, so long as unemployment does not spike. Anyway, there is still room for further expansion before the crypto cycle approaches its peak.
On the crypto side, market sentiment remains cautious. The Fear & Greed Index is still in fear, most investors are sitting on the sidelines, and capital has crowded into gold and silver, which are trading at euphoric all-time highs.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, has traded almost like a stablecoin since late November, a condition that rarely lasts. As the new year begins, with capital reallocation, post-tax harvesting flows, and shifting macro positioning, the risk/reward for bitcoin looks increasingly attractive.
Altcoins are a different case, as most remain uninvestable until clearer market structure emerges, which we expect to start forming in Q1.
Overall, the setup points to a continuation of the expansion phase, with the market top likely still ahead rather than already behind us.
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⚠ This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Traders should conduct thorough research, understand the risks, and carefully evaluate their decisions before investing in cryptocurrency.
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