Does the 4-Year Crypto Cycle Still Exist Or Is Breaking?

You and I have talked about the cycle so many times that it almost feels like crypto folklore. Every four years, same story, same emotions, but right now, something feels different.

So let’s slow down and walk through this together, step by step, without bias. I’ll show you why the cycle existed, why many still defend it, why some of the smartest institutions think it’s breaking, and how you should think about risk when the 4 year cycle stops being predictable.

🧱 How the 4-Year Cycle Was Built

To understand whether the cycle still exists, you first need to understand why the 4 year cycle worked so well for more than a decade.

Bitcoin’s 4 year cycle is based on one thing called the halving.

Every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years, Bitcoin $BTC ( ▼ 1.1% ) reduces its block reward by 50 percent. The halving reduces the number of new Bitcoins entering circulation, which directly lowers Bitcoin’s inflation rate.

When Bitcoin went from 50 BTC per block to 25 BTC, then from 25 to 12.5, 12.5 to 6.25, etc. Each halving created a supply shock, which is the foundation of the cycle.

Historically, the 4 year cycle followed a very consistent structure.

• Year 1: Strong growth (after halving).

• Year 2: Downtrend or "crypto winter" with a sharp correction.

• Year 3: Accumulation.

• Year 4: Bitcoin halving occurs, then the price rises again.

This pattern defined the cycle from 2012 through 2021. If you traded long enough, you didn’t even need indicators. But here’s the problem most people ignore.

The impact of the halving cycle is diminishing over time, as the reduction in the number of Bitcoins mined no longer creates the same significant percentage change in inflation as before (e.g., a drop from 50 to 25 BTC/block is significant, but subsequent halvings are less so).

That doesn’t mean the cycle disappears overnight. But it does mean its influence weakens over time.

📈 Why Some People Say the 4-Year Cycle Is Still Alive

Despite everything I just said, many experienced investors still believe strongly in the cycle. And to be fair, their arguments are not emotional. They are grounded in market structure and have different arguments:

1. Market Law:

As Bitcoin’s market cap grows, growth naturally slows. It takes exponentially more capital to move price, but that doesn’t kill the 4-year cycle; it simply results in smaller upside multiples and longer consolidation phases, while the overall rhythm remains intact.

2. Normal Correction:

Bitcoin recently moved from roughly $15,000 to over $62,000. That’s more than an eightfold increase. In any market, that kind of move demands a correction, and a drawdown here doesn’t invalidate the cycle.

Believers of the 4 year cycle see the current pullback as normal digestion, not structural weakness. From their perspective, this is exactly how previous cycles behaved before the next leg higher.

3. Altcoins:

Altcoins, historically, do not lead. They follow Bitcoin, and every major altcoin season was driven by a strong Bitcoin trend plus a compelling narrative like ICOs in 2017, DeFi and NFTs in 2021.

Right now, that narrative is missing.

AI, RWAs, gaming, memecoins - Nothing has the cohesion or capital gravity of past cycles. To believers, this doesn’t mean the cycle is broken. It means the altcoin phase simply hasn’t arrived yet.

From this viewpoint, Bitcoin still dictates everything. Until Bitcoin decisively breaks its historical behavior, the 4 year cycle remains the base case.

🏦 Why Some People Say the 4-Year Cycle Is Breaking

Large institutions don’t trade beliefs. They trade flows, data, and structure. And many of them think the cycle as we knew it no longer applies.

1. Timing

Bitcoin made a new all-time high before the 2024 halving. That has never happened before. In every previous 4 year cycle, the halving came first, price discovery came later.

That alone forces you to question whether the cycle still drives price, or whether something else is now dominant.

2. Macro

Bitcoin today reacts to interest rates, liquidity conditions, dollar strength, and risk sentiment. This wasn’t the case in earlier cycles. Back then, Bitcoin lived in its own universe. Today, it trades like a global macro asset.

This year adds another red flag.

According to the traditional 4 year cycle, this should be a growth year. Instead, Bitcoin is down roughly 2.5%.

If the year closes red, it breaks the historical pattern of one red year followed by three green years. That pattern defined the cycle for over a decade.

Another missing piece is the blow-off top.

2017 and 2021 ended with parabolic surges, euphoric retail participation, and violent tops. This cycle shows none of that. No mass retail frenzy, no vertical final candle.

Institutions like Bernstein argue that this is not weakness - It’s evolution:

Their thesis is that Bitcoin is entering a longer growth cycle, not a sharper one. Institutional capital absorbs selling pressure gradually. There is no need for a blow-off top when demand is steady and structural.

• Bernstein maintains a long-term target of $1 million per Bitcoin by 2033.

• JP Morgan is even more aggressive in the medium term, targeting $170,000 within 6 to 12 months and suggesting the next peak could land around 2027 near $200,000.

• Cathie Wood points out that Bitcoin now oscillates between acting like a safe-haven asset and a risk asset. During the US banking crisis in 2023, Bitcoin behaved like digital gold. At other times, it trades like a tech stock.

⚖️ Risk Management in a World Where the Cycle Is Unclear

Here’s where I want you to pay attention.

Whether the cycle survives or not matters far less than how you manage risk.

→ Current Cash Flow Situation:

• The current selling pressure comes from long-term investors looking to take profits to manage risk, fearing a deeper price drop if the 4-year cycle repeats.

• Buying pressure is mainly from institutions. Despite Bitcoin's 30% correction, outflows from ETFs remain very low (below 5%), indicating strong long-term demand.

→ Advice:

• More important than who is right or wrong is risk management and positioning.

• Investors cannot predict the future, so it's necessary to position oneself (taking partial profits, holding onto some) to ensure stability if prices continue to rise or if prices plummet during a crypto winter.

Actually, the current lack of clarity regarding the 4-year cycle makes the market next year more interesting, and it feels like something new is emerging.

So remember not to try to predict and win the market, you just need to manage risk.

⚠ This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Traders should conduct thorough research, understand the risks, and carefully evaluate their decisions before investing in cryptocurrency.

If you’re interested in other topics and want to stay ahead of how Crypto is reshaping the markets, from whale strategies to the next major altcoin narrative, you can explore more of our deep-dive articles here:

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