Weekly Burn 02: Merry Christmas GUYS!

A overlook at where crypto risk and opportunity actually sit as markets shift from hype to structure.

Author

Eugene Le
December 27, 2025

TL;DR BOX

The most important forces shapes crypto markets right now, focusing on where risk sits and what actually matters beyond short-term price moves. It breaks down current market structure, showing how Bitcoin and major altcoins are behaving after recent drawdowns and why patience and risk management remain critical.

It also looks past charts to cover bigger drivers, including AI competition, corporate leverage risks like MicroStrategy, and the growing influence of traditional finance. Finally, it outlines how crypto is shifting into a more selective, fundamentals-driven phase, where trust, regulation, real-world utility, and institutional adoption will determine long-term winners.

Key points

  • Fact: Bitcoin briefly falling below the MA200 does not confirm a bear market by itself.

  • Mistake: Reacting to headlines instead of structure and liquidity.

  • Action: Focus on risk management and context before making decisions.

Critical insight

Markets punished weak positioning in 2025, but quietly rewarded disciplined capital allocation.

The article analyzes the current crypto market using technical analysis, with a primary focus on Bitcoin and key altcoins.

After a sharp drop, Bitcoin $BTC ( ▲ 0.22% ) is reacting at a key support zone, with two main short-term scenarios in play: either a final liquidity sweep toward the $80k - $83k range before forming a bottom, or a brief bounce following a minor downtrend break.

It also addresses downside risk, noting that while Bitcoin has slipped below the MA200, historical cycles show this alone does not confirm a full bear market. Previous cycles suggest patience is key, as short-term corrections often resolve before any long-term trend is confirmed.

Beyond Bitcoin, the article highlights technical setups in Bitcoin Cash $BCH ( ▲ 11.52% ) , Uniswap $UNI ( ▲ 6.7% ) , and Zcash $ZEC ( ▲ 3.25% ) . BCH is consolidating below key resistance with potential upside if it breaks out.

UNI remains in accumulation while governance changes could improve token value long term. ZEC is forming a bullish compression pattern, mirroring Bitcoin’s structure, with a breakout likely to determine its next major move.

The article explains that the AI ​​race has entered a critical phase where speed and survival are more important than perfection. The rapid, consecutive launches from OpenAI and Google show that neither side can afford to slow down.

While OpenAI faces enormous infrastructure costs and relies on ongoing fundraising, Google owns its own chips, data centers, and distribution channels. That ownership allows Google to reduce costs and integrate AI directly into everyday products, giving it greater resilience in a long-term battle.

The article describes a fragile crypto market marked by weak buying pressure, thin liquidity, and fading confidence.

Against this backdrop, market anxiety surged after MicroStrategy $MSTRX ( ▲ 0.66% ) acknowledged it could sell Bitcoin in an extreme stress scenario. While Chairman Saylor stressed that selling BTC would be a last resort, concerns remain due to the company’s leverage and its role as a proxy for Bitcoin exposure.

An even bigger risk may come from traditional finance. If MSCI excludes companies with heavy crypto balance sheets, forced selling by index funds could create sharper and faster downside than any voluntary Bitcoin sale, especially in an already fragile market.

A good trade has nothing to do with making money in the moment. A good trade is one where you follow your rules exactly, regardless of news and rumor.

Markets are inherently random, even high-probability setups can fail. That’s why risk management is the real edge.

There are three main steps to beggin a day trading strategy:

  • Step 1: Identify the Trend

  • Step 2: Spot the Trend Ending

  • Step 3: Position and Manage Risk

⭐ Share Your Feedback:

We’d love to know how you feel about the content we’re creating. Your feedback helps us improve and deliver more value.

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

The article explores the contradictions shaping crypto’s future, starting with trust. Crypto was built to remove reliance on institutions, yet many users still place blind trust in projects and platforms they don’t fully understand.

It also argues that immutability, censorship resistance, and decentralization are more fragile in practice than in theory. For crypto to succeed long term, it must tie tokens to real utility, build sustainable communities, and integrate with the traditional economy as trusted digital infrastructure rather than pure speculation.

The article reflects on a volatile year in crypto and presents forward-looking predictions from different team members as the market heads into 2026. Some see fear dominating recent months, while others view the turbulence as a setup for long-term structural growth rather than a simple price cycle.

More cautious predictions warn that the cycle may not be over yet, with Bitcoin and Ethereum $ETH ( ▼ 0.04% ) potentially facing deeper drawdowns before real growth resumes. Across all perspectives, the common theme is a k-shaped market, where fundamentals, macro policy, and real-world utility matter far more than hype.

Spending crypto during the holidays isn’t about charts or macro narratives. It’s about turning digital value into real-world choices.

From extreme long-term bets like cryonic preservation to practical uses like travel, hardware wallets, or crypto-native devices, these examples show that crypto can already be spent in ways that reflect personal beliefs, lifestyle, and risk tolerance.

The second half of 2025 was defined by structural shifts rather than hype. Ethereum regained investor confidence through sharper execution, while the Digital Asset Treasury boom quietly locked up over 5% of $ETH ( ▼ 0.04% ) supply as public companies turned balance sheets into yield-generating on-chain engines.

At the same time, platforms raced to become the financial “everything app,” with Robinhood, Coinbase, and GalaxyOne competing for distribution and user trust. As the broader market fell, capital rotated into privacy, triggering a powerful rally in tokens like Zcash $ZEC ( ▲ 3.25% ) . Together, these moves marked a clear transition toward maturity, consolidation, and selective winners in crypto.

Rate us today!

Your feedback helps us improve and deliver better Crypto content!

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

⚠ This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Traders should conduct thorough research, understand the risks, and carefully evaluate their decisions before investing in cryptocurrency.

If you’re interested in other topics and want to stay ahead of how Crypto is reshaping the markets, from whale strategies to the next major altcoin narrative, you can explore more of our deep-dive articles here:

*indicates premium insights available to Pro readers only.

Reply

or to participate.