The Weekly Burn: Macro After Venezuela Being Attacked

Below is a curated list of the pieces I’ve published over the past week, covering the key themes and developments shaping the market:

1. Latest Crypto News: Bitcoin, BCH, XVG, ZEC: A trading strategy breakdown of BTC, BCH, XVG, and ZEC as long-term holders return and momentum starts to shift.

2. 4 Important Things Investors must Know For Alt Season 2026: A macro-first market outlook on the exact conditions required for an alt season to emerge in 2026.

3. Where Are We in the Crypto Cycle!?️ Market Top In 2026 All Investors Must Know: Key indicators suggest bitcoin is still mid-cycle, with the market top likely ahead rather than already behind us.

4. Bitcoin Rally to $94K and Even Higher...Every Traders Must Know!!! Macro data, rate-cut expectations, and chart structure are shaping Bitcoin’s move this week.

5. The Crypto Market Starts Rallying and Ignoring It Could Be Costly 🤯 Institutional inflows, easing liquidity, and macro shifts explain why this rally may have more structure than it appears

6. Bitcoin’s Broken Cycle and Everything Traders Must Watch Out In 2026: Why Bitcoin’s disappointing year isn’t the end of the thesis, but a stress test separating short-term expectations from long-term fundamentals.

7. Token Buybacks vs Growth - Protocols or traders benefit? Why buybacks do protocols pump prices by tightening circulating supply, and why that same shortcut may be costing protocols long-term growth.

8. The Next Interface War: Ambient Computing Is About to Kill the Smartphone: As extended reality moves beyond headsets and screens fade away, the real battle is over who controls the invisible layer of technology surrounding you.

9. How Venezuela’s Oil Reserves and US Energy Strategy Ripple Into Crypto Markets: The U.S. acted to remove a geopolitical hub, secure long-term oil influence, and weaken rival power networks without triggering immediate oil market shocks.

10. A Q1 2026 Macro Snapshot for Risk and Crypto: Growth is accelerating, inflation is cooling, and policy is easing, setting a pro-risk backdrop where equities are leading and crypto may be lagging, not failing.

11. The Billion-Dollar Trap 90% People Don't Know After The FTX Collapse: Inside the legal machinery that turned the FTX collapse into a billion-dollar fee extraction.

To go deeper, I’ll summarize and systematize these events to analyze how they connect and how they may impact the crypto market.

⛏️ Latest Crypto News

This week’s update shows early recovery signs. Bitcoin $BTC ( ▼ 0.21% ) is building a bullish setup but still must break the $93K - $94K zone.

Bitcoin Cash $BCH ( ▲ 4.02% ) is showing strong breakout momentum, and Verge remains a short-term wave-trading play.

Zcash $ZEC ( ▲ 2.89% ) has already run +200% and is hitting resistance again, so traders should wait for either a clean breakout or a pullback to $310 - $384.

Overall, confidence is returning across several majors, supporting a solid early-year outlook.

Alt season in 2026 depends on four signals: rate cuts that push investors toward risk assets, ISM PMI staying above 50 to confirm economic expansion, a weakening $DXY ( 0.0% ) that frees up global liquidity, and the Market Structure Bill giving institutions access to more altcoins. When these four align, the setup for an alt season becomes real.

⛏️ Crypto Cycle

Crypto cycle signals show Bitcoin is still far from a top. The MVRV Z-Score is low, global M2 is rising again, and the Pi Cycle Top Indicator shows no warning signs. Macro conditions, early-mid expansion, cooling inflation, improving risk appetite, also support more upside.

Sentiment is cautious and BTC has been unusually flat, but that actually improves its risk/reward going into the new year. Altcoins need clearer structure first, but overall the cycle still looks like it has room to run.

Capital is rushing back into crypto, with $1.16B flowing into Bitcoin ETFs in two days and the market cap jumping $250B in a week - classic signs of institutional repositioning, not retail hype.

Macro conditions are improving too: QT has ended, the Fed’s balance sheet is stabilizing, and global central banks are easing. Weak jobs and cooling inflation boost the odds of rate cuts, which historically help crypto. With ~80% of economies loosening policy, liquidity is rising. Overall, the rally looks driven by real macro tailwinds, not speculation.

⛏️ Macro

Risk assets are starting 2026 strong as growth improves, inflation cools, and the Fed turns more dovish - an ideal setup for markets. Small caps, cyclicals, copper, and silver all point to early-expansion momentum, while Dow Transports hitting new highs confirms the trend.

Crypto hasn’t caught up yet, but this environment has historically favored Bitcoin and altcoins. Upcoming labor data and CPI may add volatility, but a soft inflation print would reinforce the rally.

Bitcoin’s recent 6% drop feels bigger because people expected a strong 2025, but institutional flows have changed how the market behaves, making the old 4-year cycle less reliable.

This fuels theories about “suppression” and highlights how long cycles test patience, especially for those without large assets. But the core thesis hasn’t changed: in a world of money printing and digital systems, a scarce digital asset still makes sense.

🏗️ Venezuela Outlook

This update shows a packed macro week, with PMI as the key signal - back above 50 would confirm expansion and support crypto. The surprise Venezuela development puts the U.S. in control of the world’s largest oil reserves, which could ease energy prices, cool inflation, and raise the odds of Fed rate cuts.

With jobs weakening and inflation slowing, cheaper oil strengthens the case. Lower rates mean more liquidity, helping crypto. Bitcoin reacted well to the news, jumping from $88K to $94K and forming a higher low, showing its long-term uptrend is still intact despite months of sideways movement.

This update explains that the U.S. quickly removed Maduro in a targeted operation to regain control of Venezuela, which is a key geopolitical hub with the world’s largest oil reserves and deep ties to China, Russia, and Iran. The move is about power, not immediate oil supply, since Venezuela’s production is crippled and will take years to rebuild.

Oil prices barely moved, partly because speculators were already heavily short, though that positioning could spark a rebound. Long term, U.S. control could pressure oil prices later this decade. For now, energy stocks jumped as investors bet on future access, while the oil market stayed stable, showing that control matters more than current output.

🏗️ Crypto Cycle and Bitcoin ATH

Token buybacks are popular because they add immediate buying pressure, cut circulating supply, and boost price reflexivity, making tokens move faster than organic demand alone. But they also carry opportunity costs - protocols could use that money to build products, expand distribution, or acquire teams for stronger long-term growth. Buybacks are a quick, low-risk tool for mature, cash-rich projects, not a substitute for real innovation. The real issue is whether they’re used strategically or simply as a shortcut to pump price in the short term.

This update shows that the smartphone era is peaking, and big tech is fighting to control the next interface. Google is pushing ambient computing with Gemini smart glasses, Meta is winning early with stylish Ray-Bans and its Neural Band for hands-free control, OpenAI is building a screenless “anti-phone,” and Neuralink represents the long-term brain-computer path. The real winners won’t be the hardware brands but the software platforms that power ambient computing and become the intelligence layer behind these new interfaces.

🏗️ FTX Collapse

FTX collapsed in 10 days after the Alameda–FTT leak triggered a $6B bank run and Binance abandoned a rescue. Bankruptcy handed control to John J. Ray III, who treated FTX as a crime scene, while SBF argued the exchange was illiquid, not insolvent.

The “dollarization trap” froze customer claims at cycle lows, locking them out of the BTC and SOL rebound as the estate sold assets cheaply. Critics call it a “legal coup,” with Sullivan & Cromwell taking control and collecting massive fees. The core question is whether FTX fell from SBF’s actions or from a bankruptcy process that destroyed recovery potential.