Macro Environment: BTC Leads, Alts Bleed, Smart Money Repositions

⭐ The Macro Environment Is No Longer Friendly to Altcoins

The macro environment right now favors strength, liquidity, and safety. And in crypto, that means Bitcoin dominance keeps rising while altcoins struggle to catch a bid.

Even after the market shock, Bitcoin $BTC.X ( ▼ 5.05% ) snapped back to the $90k zone almost mechanically. But you saw what happened next.

Most altcoins didn’t recover, and they have not even bounced. They underperformed BTC more.

During the entire T4 to T8 bull wave, only 3-5 alts really did well like $PENGU.X ( ▼ 12.85% ) , $VIRTUAL.X ( ▲ 1.65% ) , $HYPE.X ( ▼ 7.23% ) , $MNT.X ( ▼ 3.1% ) , plus a few alts on Base like BNKR, MAMO, KTA, ZORA, EDGE.

The rest of the alts were stagnant or were left behind by BTC, which forces you to rethink your trading strategy instead of chasing weak bounces.

Everyone else?

When you compare alt/BTC pairs, the picture becomes more brutal. Your altcoin bags might be green in USD terms, but they’re bleeding heavily against BTC.

And that tells you everything about the macro environment right now, and why your trading strategy needs to shift toward safety and liquidity.

⭐ 1INCH MM Activity Signals

If there’s one group in this market whose footsteps I always follow, it’s the 1INCH market-making team.

These guys led us through some of the best waves in 2023 and 2024. They’re consistent, patient, and extremely tactical.

The first big accumulation block happened before the 2024 run-up, followed by a sharp capital recovery where they exited into strength.

This pattern repeats throughout the year: buy in the quiet, sell into momentum.

After months of inactivity, the MM wallet has started withdrawing more tokens and building a new position.

The most recent block shows a withdrawal of 3M 1INCH (~66M USD) directly to their wallet. Historically, this behavior has almost always preceded either a structural bottom or the accumulation phase before a macro rotation.

A full shift in behavior.
From zero activity → to slow, steady, calculated buying.

This isn’t noise. This is exactly the type of pattern that preceded major breakouts in the past two years. When MM teams rotate, they’re signaling where the next liquidity cycle may begin.

⭐ Capital Cycles Favor BTC & ETH Under Current Macro Conditions

As the few successful alts cool off, liquidity naturally flows back into BTC and ETH. The alt market has clearly broken away from the rising rhythm of the leading assets. BTC pushes up, ETH stabilizes, but alts barely move.

Most of them simply can’t keep up under the current macro environment.

Most altcoins will continue to underperform the bluechip lines, especially when liquidity is thin and risk appetite is low. This is the phase where the market rewards safety and depth, and your trading strategy should reflect that.

Over time, most altcoins will die anyway. Only projects with strong funding, real revenue, and active ecosystems, like $HYPER.X ( ▼ 0.95% ) , $UNI.X ( ▼ 2.81% ) , and well-backed AI tokens, can still generate short-term momentum.

So what are the odds of choosing the right alt to deploy real size into?

Realistically, it’s less than 10%, even for experienced traders. The majority of alts aren’t built to survive. They’re created for fast speculation and explosive gains, but the risk is just as massive.

So remember: choosing the right trading strategy matters more than choosing the right alt.

Before you read on, I hope you can give me a quick vote so I know whether I should keep improving, and bring you even better content:

⚡ Key Takeaway

• BTC continues to dominate while alts lose momentum, showing that the current macro environment rewards strength and deep liquidity, not speculative rotation. Most alts are green in USD but bleeding heavily against BTC.

• Only a handful of alts outperformed during the T4 - T8 wave, including PENGU, VIRTUAL, HYPE, MNT, and Base tokens like BNKR and ZORA. Everything else stayed stagnant, proving why your trading strategy must adapt to a tougher macro environment instead of chasing weak bounces.

• MM activity from the 1INCH team is heating up again, with a fresh 3M 1INCH withdrawal signaling early accumulation. This behavior has historically appeared near structural bottoms or early-cycle rotations, especially during uncertain macro environment conditions.

• Capital is flowing back to BTC and ETH, while altcoins decouple from the upside. In a defensive macro environment, survival, capital preservation, and disciplined risk management matter far more than high-risk bets.

• Most altcoins will not survive multiple cycles, because they’re designed for rapid speculation, not fundamentals. Only well-funded projects with real revenue and strong ecosystems can maintain momentum in a tightening macro environment.

• Your trading strategy matters more than the alt you pick, especially in a cycle where fewer than 10% of alts justify large position sizing. Focus on liquidity, risk control, and asymmetric opportunities aligned with the realities of today’s macro environment.

⚠ This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Traders should conduct thorough research, understand the risks, and carefully evaluate their decisions before investing in cryptocurrency.

If you’re interested in other topics and want to stay ahead of how Crypto are reshaping the markets, from whale strategies to the next major altcoin narrative, you can explore more of our deep-dive articles here:

• Macro Environment: The AI Race is Hotter*

• The Crypto Sell-Off and Get Ready for the Old Coins

• Latest Crypto News: Bitcoin Reawakens, TAO Halving Hype Builds

• AI in Trading: How ChatGPT Atlas Could Redefine Trading Strategy*

• Zcash Pumps 30%, and Bitcoin Prepares for a Breakout

*indicates premium insights available to Pro readers only.